🚨 FED INTEREST POLICY: HOW MANY INTEREST RATE CUTS ARE EXPECTED THIS YEAR? 🚨

Friends, as you know, the Fed decided yesterday to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25 - 4.50. Powell’s recent statements indicate that the Fed is taking a cautious approach to interest rate increases. In his speech yesterday, he stated that inflation remains slightly above the 2% target and that they have managed to maintain balance without raising rates. However, he emphasized that inflation is not fully under control. This creates uncertainty about when interest rate increases will end and how strong the likelihood of interest rate cuts will be.

The impact of tariffs has been felt more slowly than expected, and economic growth has slowed. The decrease in consumer spending is having a negative effect on growth.

Market Expectations:

September 17, 2025: The probability of rates remaining in the range of 4.25 - 4.50 is 62.6%.

October 29, 2025: A decrease in rates to the range of 4.00 - 4.25 is expected (46.9%), but the likelihood of staying at 4.25 - 4.50 is also 39.1%.

Compared to September, the rate cut likelihood appears to be higher in October. Powell’s statements also suggest that the likelihood of rate cuts has weakened without full control of inflation. It is difficult to predict exactly how many rate cuts will occur this year. So, do you think Powell is following the right strategy? How many times do you think the Fed will cut rates this year? 🤔