Here’s the latest update from the July 29–30, 2025 FOMC meeting:
## FOMC meeting ##
The Federal Reserve announced it is maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change .
The decision passed with a 9‑2 vote, as governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented, advocating for a 25‑bp cut due to signs of a weakening labor market and slowing growth. This is the first dual dissent by Board members since 1993 .
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven and cautious approach, stating that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, uncertainty persists, and it’s too soon to anticipate a September rate cut .
📉 Market & Analyst Reactions
Market sentiment shifted cautiously: expectations for a September rate cut fell significantly—from around 63% to as low as 45–49% according to CME FedWatch data .
Equity markets dipped modestly, Treasury yields rose slightly, and the U.S. $dollar strengthened in response to Powell's neutral tone and lack of forward guidance .
Economists remain split: while some anticipate potential cuts in September or later this year due to softening growth and labor trends, others warn of sticky inflation and tariff-driven price pressures that may delay easing .
👉key points👈
Interest rate Held at 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged
Board vote split Uncommon 9–2 vote with dual dissent
Inflation outlook Above 2%, remains a concern
Labor market Slight cooling, but unemployment at ~4.1%
Rate cut expectations Markets now anticipate cuts later in 2025, not immediate
Next key policy date Sept 16–17, 2025, with SEP and rate decision
Potent signals of slowing growth and rising political pressure were balanced by inflation risks and internal division—making the Fed’s next moves highly contingent on incoming economic data.