📅 On July 30, 2025, the FOMC decided to maintain rates between **4.25% and 4.50%**, for the **fifth consecutive time**.
This also marks a first since 1993: **two dissenting governors** — Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller — voted in favor of a quarter-point cut. 1
The real key today: **the tone adopted by Jerome Powell** during his conference.
A *dovish* speech could push $BTC and $ETH higher; a *hawkish* tone would trigger a correction.
1️⃣ Macro context
Inflation weight: **CPI at 2.7% in June**, still above the 2% target 3
- GDP growth in Q2 2025 rebounded to **+3% annualized** after +0.5% in Q1 4
- The labor market remains robust with solid job demand – signs of a resilient economy. 5
2️⃣ Crypto market reactions
**Bitcoin**: slight drop of about **‑0.1%**, trading around **$117,777** after the decision
- **Ethereum**: slight increase of about **+0.4%**, around **$3,809**, driven by mixed sentiment 7
- Rate cut expectations for September have decreased: the probability dropped to **~51%** from **~35%** before Powell's conference. 8
3️⃣ Possible impacts for crypto traders
🎯 **Forecasts based on speech scenarios:**
- 💬 *Dovish* (accommodating tone) → risk-taking recovery and return of altcoins
- 🧱 *Hawkish* (reserved or firm tone) → BTC/ETH correction, rotation towards stablecoins
- ✅ No clear signal for September: Powell emphasizes a **data-driven policy** 9
4️⃣ Suggested trading plan
✅ I am keeping my positions in USDT for now. 🔍 I am watching post-conference reactions, especially on $DXY, stablecoin volume, and volatility on $BTC/$ETH. 📌 If the speech is weak (dovish): I will reassess an entry
