#币安HODLer空投TREE Five years ago, there was one early morning when I was awakened by the red alarm sound of the exchange. In just three hours, all 6 million assets in my account were completely liquidated, leaving nothing. I watched the constantly fluctuating negative numbers on the computer screen, feeling like I was nailed to the cross of reality.

In the end, I realized: the cryptocurrency market is not a casino but a battlefield. I borrowed 120,000 from friends everywhere, constantly summarizing failed cases, learning various trading techniques, strategies, and market analysis, and developed a trading method with a win rate of up to 90%. In just 90 days, I rolled my funds to 20 million; it was truly not easy! Guidelines for choosing perpetual contract leverage: why 100x leverage might be your optimal solution?

1. The underlying logic of perpetual contracts

- Infinite holding: as long as it does not trigger liquidation, you can hold indefinitely

- Price anchoring: Maintain connection with the spot through funding rates

- Leverage freedom: Flexibly adjust leverage to fit different capital strategies

2. The core formula for choosing leverage: Risk × Efficiency = Return

1. The essence of risk: Leverage risk depends on position control; 100x leverage, through scientific management, can be equivalent to low leverage risk.

2. Comparison of capital efficiency (taking BTC 4700U as an example)

| Leverage multiple | Margin | Utilization rate | Impact of fees |

|----------|--------|--------|------------|

| 1x | 4700U | 100% | Significant |

| 30x | 156.7U | 3.34% | High |

| 100x | 47U | 1% | Low |

Core conclusion: 100x leverage requires only 1% of the principal to open a position, leaving 99% of funds as risk reserves, effectively avoiding transaction fee losses.

3. 100x leverage practical risk control system

1. Position management

- Single margin ≤ 5% of total funds

- For a principal of 5000U, it is recommended to hold ≤20 contracts (total margin ≤940U)

2. Dynamic risk control

- Fixed stop loss at 2-3%, start trailing stop loss at 5% profit

- Daily target of 1-2% profit

3. Trading discipline

- Prohibit holding positions; adopt a single position mode

- Daily trading ≤ 2 hours, avoid emotional trading

4. Profit calculation (5000U principal)

Table

Market scenario Daily return Monthly return Risk control performance

Ideal market 2% 3000U controllable

Normal fluctuations 1% 1000U Stable

Extreme market -5% -500U risk isolation

Core conclusion: Under strict risk control, 100x leverage can achieve low risk and high returns.

5. Newbie pit avoidance

1. 30x full position risk > 100x 5% position

2. Reserve 5% of the principal as maintenance margin to prevent forced liquidation

Summary: 100x leverage is a professional capital allocation tool; mastering scientific risk control can achieve efficient and stable trading.

People often ask, 'Why do I always lose money trading cryptocurrencies?' In fact, many times it’s because they don’t understand the trend! Today, I will share a 'three-line analysis method' that is simple, practical, and quick for beginners to master!

Core tools: Three key moving averages

Open the candlestick chart and set these three lines; they can help you determine buying and selling timing:

- 5-day moving average (short-term trend): Reflects short-term price fluctuations, quick and sensitive;

- 20-day moving average (medium-term trend): Smoothly filter short-term interference and grasp the medium-term direction;

- 60-day moving average (long-term trend): Determine the dividing line between bull and bear markets; strong stability.

Four-step trading rule (recommended for collection)

1. Coin selection principles

Prioritize selecting cryptocurrencies with a bullish arrangement of moving averages (5-day > 20-day > 60-day), and stay away from 'downward traps' with bearish moving averages.

2. Entry timing

- If the price stabilizes above the 20-day moving average, you can test with a small position;

- Break above the 60-day moving average and retest without breaking, add positions;

- Avoid chasing after a short-term sharp rise away from the moving averages.

3. Exit signals

- Break below the 5-day moving average; reduce positions to avoid short-term risks;

- If it effectively breaks below the 20-day moving average, clear out for profit/loss;

- If the 60-day moving average is broken, it indicates a trend reversal; exit decisively.

4. Practical reminders

- No method is 100% accurate; it needs to be combined with trading volume, industry hotspots, and other auxiliary judgments;

- Strictly execute stop-loss to avoid being 'trapped';

- Build positions in batches to diversify risk; do not put all your eggs in one basket.

Bitter experience: There was a friend who heavily invested based on news; though there was a temporary limit surge, due to not setting a stop loss, when it broke below the 60-day moving average, they held on with luck, ultimately losing more than half. Remember: trend is king, discipline is shield; only then can you navigate the cryptocurrency space steadily and far!

Following the market trend is the most reliable beacon to success. During market downturns, do not blindly catch the bottom; that is merely an illusion akin to mirages. When the market warms up and corrects, that is the golden opportunity for us to buy low, which is much safer than blindly holding the bottom. When selecting cryptocurrencies, we need to develop keen insight. Those coins that surge like meteors, whether mainstream or non-mainstream, should be cautiously avoided. Because their rise is too rapid, so is the intensity of the correction; any misstep could lead to deep entrapment.

In the field of technical analysis, I particularly trust the MACD indicator++. When the DIF line and DEA line intertwine below the 0 axis and successfully break the 0 axis, that is a good buying opportunity. Conversely, if they converge above the 0 axis and extend downwards, that is a signal to reduce positions.

As for averaging down, it is a thorny road, not to be entered lightly. Once you incur a loss, do not blindly average down, or you will only fall deeper, possibly losing everything. Remember to decisively stop loss during losses and gradually add positions when profits are made.

Trading volume is also an element that cannot be ignored. When the price breaks out from a low level, if the trading volume significantly expands, it often indicates that a major opportunity is approaching.

The most critical thing is to follow the trend. By combining the daily line, 30-day line, 84-day line, 120-day line, and other time cycle trends, when a certain line begins to show an upward turning point, you can clearly perceive the market's direction, allowing you to make the right decision. The road to cryptocurrency investment is filled with risks and holds infinite opportunities. Only by mastering the essence of capital management, the techniques of trend analysis, and the insight to select coins can you, like me, gradually rise from a small starting point to become a member of the middle class.

So, how do retail investors make money?

Many people may say that short-term relies on technology while long-term relies on logic. In essence, short-term depends on emotions, while long-term depends on value. Value itself also carries emotions; just like Bitcoin can be speculated to 70,000 and fall back to 15,000, it’s not that Bitcoin's value has changed, but the market's emotions have shifted. Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin.

Therefore, the long-term investment value must also understand market emotions. As for short-term trading, the so-called K-line technology is essentially a reflection of market emotions. How the main funds draw K-lines completely depends on the overall market sentiment, whether there is capital following, and whether there is market heat. It can be said that everything seen in the K-line is what the capital wants you to see, not naturally formed transactions. The final reflection of emotions is trading volume.

Therefore, the rise and fall of any cryptocurrency are ultimately reflected in trading volume. Where there is volume, there is price; without volume, it can only go downhill. The first step for retail investors to counteract emotions is to understand trading volume and only participate when there is volume. The principle is simple: volume represents active funds; lack of volume indicates that funds are abandoning cryptocurrencies in the short term.

Why do short-term trades always focus on hot topics? Because when funds gather, there is a possibility of making money—even long-term strong coins and value investments are accompanied by volume. During a period of low volume and consolidation, continuous observation is still necessary. Retail investors must counteract emotions; understanding trading volume alone does not solve the problem; one must have their own trading principles.

The second step for retail investors to counteract emotions is to set clear buying and selling conditions. Many investors trade cryptocurrencies at will, buying when they want and selling when they want.

Buying point is basically when cryptocurrencies have surged; if you don’t buy now, they will take off. The selling point is basically when cryptocurrencies have plummeted; if you don’t sell now, you will be deeply trapped. The emotion of chasing highs and selling lows is inherent; it stems from the collapse of retail investors' mentality and emotions under market volatility. To counteract emotions, retail investors must stop buying and selling impulsively; they need to clarify their buying and selling points, under what circumstances to buy, and under what circumstances to sell. There must be a clear principle, decided before holding a position, not on a whim.

The third step to counteracting emotions is to understand patience and letting go. In the trading mindset of retail investors, there is a facet of human weakness: regret. You will regret why you didn’t sell when the price fell, leading to losses. You will regret why you didn’t buy when the price soared, causing you to miss out. Retail investors need to learn to be patient; what they must endure is unrealized losses.

As long as the investment logic remains unchanged, unrealized losses must be accepted. This is one of the situations that will occur on the investment road; no one can buy at the lowest point. Retail investors need to learn to let go; what they must abandon is the missed opportunities. As long as the cryptocurrency does not fit their investment logic, even if the price keeps rising, they should not follow the trend to buy but must learn to let go. Abandon those rises that do not belong to their understanding. Cold-blooded individuals are more likely to make money in cryptocurrency trading because without emotions, that is the only way to survive in the market.

Persist in learning and improving your understanding. I've summarized five key insights, which I hope will inspire those who read this!!!!

1. Don't rush to stop loss during a big drop in the morning; it is usually an overreaction to bad news from the previous night. You can wait for market repair and reversal later. A big rise at the end of the day should not be blindly chased; some main players like to test the market and lure more buyers, only to open lower the next day to suppress and accumulate.

2. Effectively use trading volume, a practical technique, to see the future market direction. Continuous rise with shrinking volume indicates that the main force controls the market strongly; continuous decline with shrinking volume indicates that panic selling has not occurred, and the freezing point has not been reached, so it will continue to fall.

3. Learn to observe the top structure of sectors. Typically, sector trends are formed by five waves. The first wave generates follow-up buying, the second wave is a washout adjustment, the third wave is the main rising wave, the fourth wave shows complex divergences, and the fifth wave pulls up to sell off. During this process, the third wave has the maximum increase, the first wave is second, and the fifth wave has the lowest. However, market conditions change constantly, and there are often instances where five waves do not occur, so it cannot be memorized blindly. After discovering that the leading stocks in the sector are rising, if the follow-up buying does not continue the previous strength, it is highly likely that a peak has been reached.

4. Every time there is an acceleration at the top of Bitcoin, you will see a certain sector's altcoins surge, leading to a reversal of Bitcoin. Just check whether the performance of major leaders has stopped falling and started rising; the index will follow suit.

5. Focus and specialize to better get started, especially for newcomers to the market. Research one strategy and master its techniques thoroughly will yield more than learning multiple skills at once. Greed leads to loss; being unskilled can easily lead to being taught lessons by the market. Do not switch modes casually; take time to learn, and slowly you will find your pace, achieving stable profits before learning more techniques to integrate.

Life must experience ups and downs to gain great enlightenment! As long as you don’t give up, the more you try, the closer you get to success. What is truly great in life is not having done something but having dedicated a lifetime to doing one particular thing.