1. Current price situation: $ETH has not surpassed the resistance level of $4,000

Since the end of December 2024, ETH has remained below the $4,000 level — a significant technical barrier that has made investors cautious. Although buyers still hope the price will exceed the $4,500 range, the $4,500 level was the peak in March 2024 and the 2020–2021 cycle. The derivative capital is strongly shifting towards ETH, and the volume of perpetual futures contracts for ETH has exceeded BTC for the first time since 2022. This proves that ETH is the focal point attracting derivative capital.

A large liquidation cluster located above the $4,000 area could trigger a wave of short liquidations up to $930 million, potentially pushing the price up rapidly to $4,500.

2. Technical warning: bearish divergence

Although ETH has continuously created new price peaks in the 4-hour and 1-day frames, the RSI indicator does not confirm — creating a bearish divergence. This is a warning signal about the potential weakening of upward momentum. If ETH cannot surpass $4,000 with strong buying pressure, the price could slightly adjust to the support area around $3,700.

3. Overall context & main reasons

  • In the past 90 days, ETH has increased more than 100%, but is still below the peak of $4,013 at the end of 2024 and is far from the historical ATH of $4,878 – about 22% lower.

The volume of ETF inflows into ETH continues to increase significantly, with last week's report recording $1.59 billion flowing into the ETH ETF product — the previous week was $2.1 billion, surpassing BTC.

📊 Strategy suggestions for investors:

  • ETH surpassing $4,000 clearly + large short liquidation -> Could quickly break through to the $4,500 area.

  • No breakout, RSI continues bearish divergence -> Short-term advantage belongs to the correction — monitor the support area at $3,700.

  • ETF inflows continue and on-chain liquidity increases -> Suggesting the possibility of pushing ETH above the old ATH ($4,013).

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