Today’s lunch:

After warning of the risks last Friday, Big Pie experienced the largest physical decline this year or in the past three months at night, with an intraday drop of more than 7%. The market has fully explained everything. Grayscale GBTC’s capital management market value It is still the largest, with currently 26.7 billion US dollars. Most other ETFs have more than 200 million, and some have only tens of millions or even millions. Grayscale still has a lot of redemption and smashing supply, and obviously His management fee is determined to force you to redeem it. The 1.5% management fee is more than five times that of other institutions. After so many years of management, I can finally get out. Now that the showdown is coming, I just quit playing. No one can stop me. Therefore, it is still an unbalanced and unstable market, and it is best to wait and see at the moment.

A research institution claims that the mining computing power of the pie will increase by 104% in 2023, and it is estimated that the average production cost of each pie will be US$37,856 after the halving. Unless the price of the pie can remain above US$40,000 for a long time, otherwise The profitability of most miners is very limited, so it is very important for miners to ship at high prices in exchange for electricity before the halving. This is the strategy of miners, so when there is full supply, it depends on what the market will do. There won’t be such a huge demand that we can handle.

INJ has a batch of unlocked tokens on the 17th of this week, about 3.67 million, worth 140 million US dollars. This is the last time INJ has unlocked a large amount. After unlocking, it will become a fully circulating token. According to data, there are currently 47 million tokens being pledged. , about 50% of the circulation has been pledged, and the APR is about 15%, and then the closed loop is repurchased and destroyed through the transaction fees of the agreement. This is also a strong logic for INJ to go crazy. Let’s take a look at INJ after it is fully unlocked.

How will the market perform?

Let me talk about another interesting thing. A large number of prediction orders have appeared in the options market at the end of this year. The largest call is currently 100,000 dollars, and the highest call is 200,000 dollars. In fact, if you have strong expectations for the market to go bullish, bet on it. Options are a very safe operation. If you go right, you will make a big profit, but if you go wrong, you will suffer a small loss.

In terms of market conditions, CME jumped short and opened lower this morning, bringing down the price of the pie, leaving a small gap at 42300-43300. It can be seen that the market reversed immediately after testing downward. I think there should be a greater chance of a rebound this week to fill this gap.Currently, CME futures still have a relatively large gap that has not been filled, at 39300-40300. Therefore, I think there is a high probability that this gap in the market outlook will be filled. That is to say, I think the big pie with the prefix 3 will definitely be seen. As for whether we can buy the bottom at this position, we have to see what happens next. If this position is If the market goes down, this position may be a short-term support, but if it rebounds and then becomes a double top and then comes back, the bulls may be held captive for a longer time.

Erbian is still going strong. The Cancun upgrade will log into the test network on January 17 this week. The next day after logging in, the Ethereum team will hold a core meeting to discuss the next step of the upgrade. Therefore, the results of the test will still affect the time when the mainnet goes online, so please wait patiently.

Today’s fear and greed index: 52 (neutral)