Important for the markets, this will Jerome Powell do!.

Today, July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on interest rates. Based on the available information and the analysis of recent trends, here is an assessment of the probabilities:

Maintaining rates: The most likely option is that the Fed will maintain current rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, as economic data shows a strong economy but with inflation still "somewhat elevated" (around 2.4%-2.8% according to recent indicators). The recent statement and Jerome Powell's attitudes suggest caution, awaiting greater confidence that inflation is sustainably heading towards 2%. A probability of around 70% is estimated.

Rate cut: A cut, possibly of 25 basis points, could be considered if labor market data or inflation show significant weakness. However, market expectations and Powell's comments indicate that September is more likely for the first cut, with a current probability of a cut in July of only around 25%. A cut of 50 basis points seems unlikely today, given the context.

Rate hike: A hike is very unlikely, with a probability of less than 5%, as inflation does not show a significant rebound that would justify further tightening, and the Fed seems focused on avoiding recession risks while maintaining a restrictive policy.