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The following is an analysis of the data for the upcoming US June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report:
Based on the conversion of CPI and PPI data, economists expect June core PCE to rise by +0.29% month-on-month, the highest growth rate since February. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 2.8%, indicating an increase in core inflationary pressure.
Overall PCE is expected to rise by +0.32% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate rising to 2.5%, showing a certain rebound in inflation in the mid-year stage.
Data Details
Item Estimated Value Previous Value Notes
Core PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.29% +0.08% (May) Significant increase, indicating enhanced inflation momentum
Core PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.8% 2.6% Close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target upper limit
Overall PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.32% +0.0% Mainly driven by energy and service prices
Overall PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.5% 2.4% Still in a moderate upward channel
1. CPI and PPI rebound drives synchronized PCE rebound: Core service prices in the June CPI (especially housing and transportation services) rose rapidly, and price increases were also seen in the service and goods segments of the PPI, creating price pressure after transmission to PCE.
2. Service sector inflation is sticky: Core PCE focuses more on service prices; unlike CPI, PCE weights housing lower, but medical, financial, and other service items have higher weights. Prices in these categories still show an upward trend.
3. Consumer spending has not noticeably slowed: Despite high interest rates, the resilience of the job market and consumer savings support spending, maintaining certain tension on the demand side.
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🏦 Policy Implications
• Impact on the Federal Reserve: If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will support the Federal Reserve in maintaining current interest rates and delay the timing of the first rate cut this year.
• Core PCE is the inflation indicator most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve; the 2.8% year-on-year growth rate is still significantly above the 2% target, which will reinforce its "data-dependent" stance.
⸻
📈 Market Reaction Prediction
Market Sector Expected Reaction
US Treasury Yields May rise, as the market adjusts expectations for rate cuts
Dollar Index May strengthen, as rate cut expectations cool
US Stocks High valuation sectors (e.g., technology) may face certain pressure
Cryptocurrency Bearish
Based on the conversion of CPI and PPI data, economists expect June core PCE to rise by +0.29% month-on-month, the highest growth rate since February. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 2.8%, indicating an increase in core inflationary pressure.
Overall PCE is expected to rise by +0.32% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate rising to 2.5%, showing a certain rebound in inflation in the mid-year stage.
Data Details
Item Estimated Value Previous Value Notes
Core PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.29% +0.08% (May) Significant increase, indicating enhanced inflation momentum
Core PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.8% 2.6% Close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target upper limit
Overall PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.32% +0.0% Mainly driven by energy and service prices
Overall PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.5% 2.4% Still in a moderate upward channel
1. CPI and PPI rebound drives synchronized PCE rebound: Core service prices in the June CPI (especially housing and transportation services) rose rapidly, and price increases were also seen in the service and goods segments of the PPI, creating price pressure after transmission to PCE.
2. Service sector inflation is sticky: Core PCE focuses more on service prices; unlike CPI, PCE weights housing lower, but medical, financial, and other service items have higher weights. Prices in these categories still show an upward trend.
3. Consumer spending has not noticeably slowed: Despite high interest rates, the resilience of the job market and consumer savings support spending, maintaining certain tension on the demand side.
⸻
🏦 Policy Implications
• Impact on the Federal Reserve: If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will support the Federal Reserve in maintaining current interest rates and delay the timing of the first rate cut this year.
• Core PCE is the inflation indicator most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve; the 2.8% year-on-year growth rate is still significantly above the 2% target, which will reinforce its "data-dependent" stance.
⸻
📈 Market Reaction Prediction
Market Sector Expected Reaction
US Treasury Yields May rise, as the market adjusts expectations for rate cuts
Dollar Index May strengthen, as rate cut expectations cool
US Stocks High valuation sectors (e.g., technology) may face certain pressure
Cryptocurrency Bearish
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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