This market looks like a bull, but in reality, it resembles a 'meat grinder'.
BTC and ETH are nearing the end of the monthly close, with volatility clearly increasing, but very few can get on board and even fewer can hold on—especially in the altcoin battlefield, which is practically 'blood running like a river'.
BTC is oscillating upwards, ETH is switching hands at high levels, and the 'critical point' is about to be triggered.
Yesterday, #BTC briefly surged to 119300 but was quickly knocked down, hitting a low near 117200 for support before barely bouncing back, with the daily line closing with a small upper shadow. This kind of movement is a standard 'last-minute kick'—the direction hasn't broken yet, but the sentiment is already loosening.
#ETH is the same. If it can't break above 3880, it will pull back to 3720 before rebounding, with a daily line showing a pin bar closing in the red. The upward momentum is weak, and short-term volatility is increasing, looking very much like a washout and inducement before the end of the month.
Key references are as follows:
Short-term resistance for BTC is seen in the 118-119 range, with support between 1155-1165; if it breaks below 116, it may test 113-114.
ETH resistance is at 3820-3880, with support looking at 3600-3660; breaking below may lead directly to a test at 3500.
Summary: The overall market is still oscillating, but funds below are already looking for someone to take over, with localized turnover in progress.
The performance of altcoins in this wave can only be described as 'chilly'.
Whether it's in the AI track, RWA, staking concepts, or the previously heated #ONDO and #MERL, almost all are experiencing 'a quick pump followed by a dump'—a rapid rise followed by a swift decline, showing no sustainability. This kind of movement is typically 'inducing long positions and washing out'.
Structurally, most altcoins are still operating below the downward trend line, with trading volume not effectively increasing, indicating that the main force's willingness to accumulate is still insufficient. What’s more problematic is that large funds are generally 'sitting on the fence', mainly engaging in short-term arbitrage, with rapid rotation of hot spots.
So the current altcoins are more like 'quick in and out trading tools', not value assets that you hold onto tightly. In terms of operations, it’s better to participate less than to get stuck in a losing battle.
On-chain data shows: the 'third wave' of the bull market is still on its way.
Don't be quick to say the market has ended.
The signal from on-chain data is that the active supply of Bitcoin has increased by nearly 1 million since the ETF launch, with many 'sleeping whales' starting to wake up, which is a typical mid-cycle characteristic of a bull market.
Do you remember the last surge to 70,000 and then 100,000? It was also initiated after a sudden increase in on-chain activity.
The rhythm of this round is indeed a bit slow, but the structure has become more solid, especially on the ETH side:
In the next 11 days, an estimated 668,000 ETH will be staked for redemption, with a market value exceeding $2.5 billion. It is expected that the area around 4000 will be a crucial turnover window, and once completed, ETH is very likely to head directly toward new highs.
BNB's recent rhythm has been quiet, but on-chain, a qualitative change is quietly happening.
BNB Chain has just completed a $1.25 billion PIPE financing, which is linked to the NASDAQ-listed BNB asset management tool—#VAPE. It’s worth mentioning that CEA Industries, originally an e-cigarette company, has completely cut its main business and transformed into a native financing platform for the BNB ecosystem, with VAPE's stock soaring over 550% that day.
This is not just about speculating on concepts; it is also a complete asset positioning upgrade. At the same time, the block time of the BNB chain has been reduced from 1.5 seconds to 0.75 seconds, and the on-chain trading volume has surged by 142.8% in three months, far surpassing ETH's 24.3% during the same period.
It all looks like it's paving the way for 'a thousand-dollar surge'.
Summary of hot altcoins: the differentiation is becoming more and more obvious now.
#DOGE: Breaking below the upward trend line, the 123 rule is completed, and it is currently in the eighth wave of downward movement. The trend is bearish, with support at 0.215 and 0.198, and resistance at 0.230 and 0.2455.
#CFX: Strongly breaking through the long-term horizontal range, after stabilizing at a key level, bullish expectations are strengthening. Every pullback is a buying opportunity; continue to watch the support strength of the breakout area.
#TRX: The perfect retest of the breakout level and curved trend line has held strong, validating the round bottom structure, and the momentum continues strongly. The next round of rebound may just be starting.
#VIRTUAL: I got on board yesterday and added a little more today. I will continue to watch signals around 1.26.
Yesterday, I made a low buy on #SPK and took 20% profit; I will continue to hold the other half for opportunities. Opportunities arise every day, and timing is key.
Stop fantasizing about the 'altcoin season'—it now feels more like an 'altcoin sacrifice'—those who survive are not the projects but the flexible traders. The main line remains the structural turnover of BTC and ETH; altcoins are just tools, not beliefs.
The bull market is not over, and the main players have not fully entered the market, but those who survive first can wait for the next wave of ascension.