Price Breakthrough: Ethereum has broken through $3940, setting a new high for 2025, just 22% away from its all-time high.
Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 84.74, entering the overbought range, while the MACD indicator has risen to its highest level since December 2023, sending strong bullish signals.
Options Market: The buying volume of call options on the Deribit exchange has surged, with the call/put option ratio reaching a six-month peak, indicating a bullish market sentiment.
Elliott Wave Theory: According to Elliott Wave analysis, Ethereum is currently in the third wave of an upward movement, with a target price around $4400, and may challenge $6000 after breaking through.
Short-term Target: Fundstrat's chief technical strategist Mark Newton predicts that Ethereum will reach $4000 before the end of July, an increase of about 2% from the current price.
Long-term Target: Tom Lee predicts that if current on-chain and market data remains favorable, Ethereum has the opportunity to reach the range of $10,000 to $15,000 by the end of the year, closely tied to the expansion of the stablecoin market.
However, it is worth noting that although market sentiment and indicators point to a bullish trend, the overbought condition of the RSI also indicates a risk of short-term pullback. Analyst Captain Faibik warns that if the resistance zone of $4000 is not broken, a technical pullback may occur.
Fundamental Support: Substantial progress in Ethereum's ecosystem, including the explosion of Layer2 ecosystems, increased institutional adoption, and the irreplaceability of Ethereum as a primary settlement layer, provides solid fundamental support.
Regulatory Risk: Although the (GENIUS Act) provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, the SEC's determination of Ethereum's securities characteristics remains uncertain, necessitating caution regarding potential regulatory risks.
In summary, Ethereum has the potential for continued upward movement in the short term, but investors should be cautious of overbought signals from technical indicators and potential pullback risks. In the long term, its value capture path, substantial progress in the ecosystem, and integration with traditional finance provide significant upward potential.
