The four seasons of a Bitcoin cycle

Every Bitcoin cycle unfolds in what feels like four distinct phases, a mix of raw market mechanics, herd psychology, and whatever is happening in the wider world.

The Quiet Accumulation: This is the winter after a big crash. The mood is gloomy, prices are in the gutter, and this is when sharp investors quietly start buying, betting on the coming spring.

The Breakout Rally: Kicking off in the months after a halving, this is when the price starts a long, steady climb that often turns into a sprint. As the numbers go up, headlines and new investors flood in, pouring more fuel on the fire.

The Mania Phase: The market hits a state of pure euphoria. Prices go vertical, driven by wild speculation and a desperate fear of missing out. This is the dizzying, dangerous peak.

The Inevitable Crash: After the top, the floor gives out. A steep, painful correction follows, with past bear markets wiping out around 80% of the peak value. This is the brutal “crypto