How I see FOMC playing out:
Base case (99.5% likely):
No cut, no hike. Market already front-ran the derisk today. ETH ~3710 was likely the weekly low. Institutional flows keep grinding us up through August. Call it Abundance August.
Bull case:
Shock rate cut. Extremely unlikely, but if it happens, it’s a signal the Fed has bent the knee. Market goes full risk-on. Would imply more cuts ahead in 2025. Hyperinflation narrative returns. BTC to $600k memes ignite.
Bear case:
Rate hike. Trump sends the military to remove JPow. All markets spiral into chaos. Apocalypse Twitter revives.
