"In the battlefield of cryptocurrencies, the trend is your weapon; going against it is like charging into a hail of bullets unarmed."
Today’s second token is like a roller coaster that the bears slammed to a halt — it just rushed to 3820 in the morning, wanting to touch the key level, but was doused with a bucket of cold water, crashing directly to 3757 at close, dropping 0.57% in an hour. Although this number isn’t large, the closing price is almost at the lowest point. What does this indicate? The bears are currently holding the steering wheel, and the bulls don’t even have the strength to grab it.
1. Key position: 3700 is the “line of life and death”; if it breaks, it’s “free fall.”
The current price of ETH is hovering around 3760, with only 1.5% distance from the support at 3700. This 3700 line isn’t drawn randomly—it is the bulls’ “last fortress.” If the 1-hour candlestick body closes below 3700 with increased trading volume, it can basically confirm the “fortress has fallen,” and the next stop may head straight to 3650.
2. Indicators are “singing bear collectively”: Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, MACD shows a “death cross” emerging.
Looking at the technical indicators, ETH is currently a “bearish family bucket.”
Bollinger Bands (BOLL): The middle line is at 3825, the price is at 3757, clearly wobbling in the “weak zone” below the middle line; the lower line is at 3726, almost overlapping with the support at 3700. More critically, the Bollinger Bands channel is “opening downwards,” like a mouth slowly opening, preparing to “swallow” the price.
MACD: Although specific values are not provided in the chart, if the price hits a new low (3757) and the MACD also hits a new low, that signifies a “strong downward trend”; if a “bottom divergence” occurs (price new low, MACD not a new low), then a rebound might be possible. But currently, the MACD is still moving downwards, with no signs of a bottom divergence, making a bearish outlook highly probable in the short term.
RSI: The price is currently declining, and the RSI is certainly also falling. If it drops below 30 (for example, to 25), it indicates a severe short-term “oversold” condition, which may lead to a rebound repair demand. However, being oversold does not mean it will rise immediately—like being hungry all day, seeing a restaurant doesn’t mean you will rush in immediately; you might hesitate at the door for two minutes.
3. Trading volume “increasing in decline”: Bears are “truly crashing the market,” not just “pretending.”
In the past hour of decline today, the trading volume was 150.9K, higher than the trading volume of the previous candlesticks. What does this indicate? It’s not the bulls making a “fake fall,” but the bears executing a “real crash.” It’s like a fight between two people; if one suddenly increases their strength and the other does not fight back, they will essentially be pinned down.
Comparison case: When BTC fell to 58000 last month, there was also a “decline with volume,” resulting in a continuous drop for 3 days, from 58000 to 54000. Later, the bulls organized a counterattack at 54000, with increased trading volume, which stabilized the situation. Therefore, a decline with volume is a signal that “bears are truly taking action,” and a rebound must wait for a “true counterattack from the bulls” (increased volume + price stabilization).
4. Trading suggestions: Don’t be a “bag holder,” wait for the “signal” before taking action.
Currently, ETH’s trend is “short-term bearish,” and remember three phrases in your operations:
Don’t rush to bottom fish: the price is still going down, and the support at 3700 hasn’t been reached. Before the trend reverses, reaching out to catch falling knives can easily lead to cuts. Be patient and wait for the price to drop near 3700, then look for signs of a stop-loss (such as long lower shadows, bullish engulfing, or shrinking trading volume).
Want to short? Wait for a rebound to the resistance level: If the price rebounds to the 3780-3800 area, and there is “weakness in the rise” (for example, the candlestick body becomes smaller, trading volume shrinks), combined with the resistance of the BOLL middle line (3825), shorting here is relatively safe, with a stop-loss set above 3825. Remember: in a bearish trend, going long against the trend is risky; going short with the trend (shorting at the resistance level during a rebound) is the choice of “smart money.”
What to do if it breaks 3800? If suddenly there is good news (for example, the Ethereum Foundation announces a major upgrade), and the price surges past 3800 and stabilizes, the short-term bearish outlook should be paused, possibly indicating the start of a rebound, targeting 3825 (BOLL middle line) or even 3850. But it is essential to confirm the validity of the breakout (for example, the 1-hour candlestick body closes above 3800, and trading volume increases) to prevent a false breakout.
Your capital is more important than “guessing the rise and fall.”
Today, the key for ETH is whether it can hold 3700—if it holds, a small rebound may occur; if it doesn’t hold, there’s a high probability of continuing to drop. But regardless of which action you choose, remember: control your position and set strict stop-losses. News in the crypto space is like a “time bomb,” a single tweet about “tightening regulation” can cause ETH to drop from 3700 to 3500.
Finally, I leave you with a saying: "In the crypto market, those who survive the longest are not the ones who earn the most, but the ones who lose the least." I am Shence, follow me, and I will help you see through the “sword light and shadow” of the crypto circle with plain language! If you don’t know what an effective breakout is, you can come to find Shence, who will guide you step by step. Are you trapped? Don’t know when to enter the market? Still, that saying: confused and helpless with no idea what to do, click on my avatar to comment. I need glory, you need references! #ETH重返3800