Everyone was dm’ing me (not a single person asked or cares) about them so I did a little thought, modeling, and analysis on the new crypto treasury companies trend.

The thesis is clear: the denominator is worthless. Individuals and companies are accumulating assets they believe will rise relative to the dollar in an effort to beat inflationary pressures.

The math of Microstrategy $MSTR and other treasury companies is simple: as long as Expected Asset Appreciation > Cost of Debt, loop as many times as humanly possible. Hence Saylor being able to raise multiple billions every month at the wave of a hand. But the key word here is “expected”. Bitcoin $BTC at $20k had larger expected asset appreciation potential than it does at $120k (however, most like to try and clip tail risk so the view that the potential is greater right now is probably more widespread than one would think). When creating or investing in these treasury companies one must consider their asset’s appreciation potential and the investment time frame. Bitcoin is expected to outpace inflation, as it has done in remarkable fashion since inception. The same underlying formula applies for all treasury companies.

One I gave more thought to was Hyperliquid $HYPE. It’s unique within this framework because they not only have the same rising tides lifting asset prices (if you want to argue about fundamentals determining prices of crypto all I ask is you explain how Cardano is worth $30B+), they also have something unlike any other asset: the Assistance Fund. A price-indiscriminate perpetual buyer based on protocol revenue. So I created a simple model emulating a hypothetical treasury company and added this unique layer.