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Increased Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in September
#美联储何时降息？
🔥Recently, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen, with Goldman Sachs estimating a slightly over 50% chance. Here's a breakdown:
Fluctuations in Rate Cut Expectations and Market Reactions:
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has fallen from a high of 90% to the 50-60% range. Goldman Sachs predicts that if core CPI continues to decline and the job market slows, a rate cut cycle may begin within the year. The number of Bitcoin investors has reached 49.6 million, with an average holding of 7 times that of gold, indicating that crypto assets are becoming a mainstream allocation.
Short-term market fluctuations are influenced by both non-farm payroll data and inflation indicators. Investors should pay attention to signals of policy shifts.
Reasons for Increased Expectations:
Impact of Tariff Policies Smaller Than Expected: Initial evidence suggests that the impact of this year's tariff measures on inflation is significantly lower than previously expected. U.S. personal consumption expenditure data for May unexpectedly declined, with only a moderate increase in monthly inflation. Deflationary forces are proving stronger than expected, providing policy space for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Inflation Expectations Indicators Fall:
Previous spikes in inflation expectations indicators from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board had hindered early rate cuts, but both indicators have now fallen back. Moreover, a growing number of people believe that partisan bias and other technical factors have distorted these indicators, alleviating inflation concerns.
Labor Market Weakening:
While overall employment data remains healthy, the difficulty in finding jobs has increased significantly. Seasonal factors and changes in immigration policy pose downside risks to short-term employment data. If future employment reports are concerning, it may prompt the Fed to cut rates earlier.
Softening Stance of Fed Officials:
Recent statements by some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicate that they are open to a rate cut in September, as long as upcoming inflation data does not show a significant unexpected increase. Remarks by Fed Governor Bowman further strengthen the possibility of a rate cut in September.
Market Related Predictions:
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2025, respectively, and to make similar cuts in March and June of 2026. Citi believes that the Fed's June meeting minutes suggest that the rate cut "wait-and-see period" may end in late summer, implying a possible rate cut in September.
#美联储何时降息？
🔥Recently, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen, with Goldman Sachs estimating a slightly over 50% chance. Here's a breakdown:
Fluctuations in Rate Cut Expectations and Market Reactions:
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has fallen from a high of 90% to the 50-60% range. Goldman Sachs predicts that if core CPI continues to decline and the job market slows, a rate cut cycle may begin within the year. The number of Bitcoin investors has reached 49.6 million, with an average holding of 7 times that of gold, indicating that crypto assets are becoming a mainstream allocation.
Short-term market fluctuations are influenced by both non-farm payroll data and inflation indicators. Investors should pay attention to signals of policy shifts.
Reasons for Increased Expectations:
Impact of Tariff Policies Smaller Than Expected: Initial evidence suggests that the impact of this year's tariff measures on inflation is significantly lower than previously expected. U.S. personal consumption expenditure data for May unexpectedly declined, with only a moderate increase in monthly inflation. Deflationary forces are proving stronger than expected, providing policy space for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Inflation Expectations Indicators Fall:
Previous spikes in inflation expectations indicators from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board had hindered early rate cuts, but both indicators have now fallen back. Moreover, a growing number of people believe that partisan bias and other technical factors have distorted these indicators, alleviating inflation concerns.
Labor Market Weakening:
While overall employment data remains healthy, the difficulty in finding jobs has increased significantly. Seasonal factors and changes in immigration policy pose downside risks to short-term employment data. If future employment reports are concerning, it may prompt the Fed to cut rates earlier.
Softening Stance of Fed Officials:
Recent statements by some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicate that they are open to a rate cut in September, as long as upcoming inflation data does not show a significant unexpected increase. Remarks by Fed Governor Bowman further strengthen the possibility of a rate cut in September.
Market Related Predictions:
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2025, respectively, and to make similar cuts in March and June of 2026. Citi believes that the Fed's June meeting minutes suggest that the rate cut "wait-and-see period" may end in late summer, implying a possible rate cut in September.
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