July 28 ETH market analysis:

#ETH重返3800 The news around ETH continues to ferment, with the 10th anniversary event and NFT relay 'torch' fully igniting market sentiment. The Ethereum Foundation team's leading attitude is relatively stable, with no obvious selling pressure. Institutions and whale funds are frequently entering the market, showing a bullish sentiment. In the past two weeks, ETH whales have cumulatively entered over 1.1 million ETH, valued at approximately 4.18 billion USD, indicating sustained long-term positioning and accumulation of chips.

From a technical perspective, looking at the hourly chart shows even stronger movement: The candlestick touched the previous high of 3907 directly, the market seems to be exploding like fireworks, breaking through the pressure at 3860 to confirm the reversal, quickly confirming support after a pullback, continuously rising along the 20MA, with MA lines providing continuous support and a strong candlestick structure. Volume on the hourly level is increasing, indicating that the main force is continuously pushing up without signs of weakness at the top.

A must-mention event is the Ethereum 10th anniversary 'torch NFT' relay commemorative activity, which will be globally live-streamed on July 30. At that time, the torch NFT will be destroyed in commemoration, and everyone can mint a commemorative NFT for free within 24 hours, continuously generating hot topics and on-chain activity, driving the ecological heat up. The network itself has never experienced downtime in ten years, and this resilient defense is also the source of confidence.

So my personal view is that there is still an opportunity: as long as the support at 3860 is maintained, there is a possibility to continue challenging 3900 and hitting the round number of 4000. The funding, narrative, and technical aspects are all working in sync, and market sentiment is expected to further amplify. If a breakout occurs with favorable stimulation, looking at the 4100 level is not mere speculation. Even without good news, there is still a probability of consolidating gains, and the bullish atmosphere remains stable.

Of course, if the market unexpectedly pulls back and cannot hold 3860, we must focus on defending the two short-term support levels of 3787 and 3724 below. If both lines are broken, it may enter a deeper oscillation washout, in which case short-term risk control must be closely followed. After breaking the level, the rhythm changes, and the short-term space is significantly discounted.



Operating strategy: Clear direction: Follow the trend, mainly bullish.


The current ETH market is in a clear bullish dominant structure, with news, technical, and funding aspects resonating together, making it suitable to execute a 'buy on dips, hold the trend' strategy. There is no obvious top signal, the candlestick patterns are smooth, oscillating upwards along the 20MA, do not try to guess the top; tops are formed through rising prices. Unless support is broken, do not short.


Key point defense: Build positions in batches + Risk control stop loss as shown:

Risk control: Three-layer protection mechanism.

Position control: Build positions in batches, take small positions to test long, avoid going all-in. Maximum position should not exceed 40% of total capital.

Stop loss mechanism: Control the stop loss range for each order within 5%-6%, decisively exit and observe if it falls below 3724.

Profit taking: Reduce positions when breaking 3900, take half off at 4000, do not chase high at 4100, do not be greedy.

The market is still in a primary upward channel; going long is the overall trend, while going short is merely based on sentiment. Control the pace well, set up risk control, and maintaining the trend means holding onto the opportunity for doubling.

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