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Bitcoin is heading into its two historically weakest months, with analysts noting that the world’s largest crypto asset has declined in nine of the past 13 Augusts and eight of the past 13 Septembers. The cryptocurrency is currently struggling to reclaim the $115,000 level after briefly dipping to $112,000 on Saturday. Analysts see a technical air pocket between $110,000 and $115,000 following last month’s rapid jump from $110,000 to $123,000. According to Compass Point Research, Bitcoin’s pullback on Friday was accelerated by a wave of long liquidations, totaling $922 billion across international perpetuals exchanges. Altcoins bore the brunt of this, with $690 million in liquidations, pointing to persistent excess leverage in the crypto markets. “Despite the sell-off, leverage within crypto markets remains elevated, with DeFi lending and open interest just off all-time highs,” Compass Point analysts said in a note. In the event of further selling, the brokerage sees $106,000 as a key support level, identifying it as the short-term holder cost basis. At the same time, trading volumes for crypto treasury stocks continue to decline, with activity falling since the July 21 peak. The report warns that “lower volumes and tighter net asset value (NAV) premiums limits TreasuryCo’s ability to use ATMs.”

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Remember that the bull market hasn't started yet! 📈

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2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025. ALL POST HALVING YEARS! Bitcoin tends to bottom in early August and rally hard afterwards. The bottom is close…

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Crypto Market Outlook for This Monday 1. Short Term Bounce May Be in Play Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher recently noted the market is likely to experience a short term rebound on Monday, which could lift both Bitcoin and major altcoins if volume increases and order book support remains firm. Past behavior suggests Monday often sets the tone for the week, especially when weekend consolidation precedes renewed bullish momentum. 2. Macro Drivers Support a Bullish Bias Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to soft U.S. nonfarm payroll data this has heightened rate cut expectations, boosting risk assets. ETF inflows and institutional accumulation remain strong tailwinds, particularly for Bitcoin, which may soon challenge the $116K resistance. 3. Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch • Bitcoin: A fair value gap between $113K–$114K is being tested; holding support there could pave the way toward the $116K zone or higher. • Ethereum & Alts: ETH is forming a bullish bull‑flag pattern, while XRP’s double-bottom and SOL’s bullish divergences suggest rising upside potential. 4. Seasonality & Risks August historically presents mixed signals some periods of consolidation or seasonal weakness have led to short-lived drops (“August Curse”). For example, crypto ETFs saw net outflows for the first time in 15 weeks last Friday. Liquidations in early August especially under U.S. tariff news have weighed on price dynamics. Summary: Is Monday Likely to Be Bullish? 🔭 What to Watch Today • Volume spikes around the $113K–$114K support area and whether BTC trades above $116K as resistance zones. • Any net inflows into ETF products or large BTC accumulation by institutional wallets (e.g. Bitfinex, BlackRock). • U.S. economic headlines especially inflation, tariffs, and upcoming Jackson Hole comments. • Alts like XRP, SOL, DOGE, TON: watch for continuation of bullish chart patterns and whale accumulation.

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📉 Why Crypto Markets Are Turning Bearish Amid Tariff Fears 1. Rising Macro Risk & Risk-Off Sentiment • Tariffs raise costs and trigger inflation, pushing central banks like the Fed to maintain or hike rates. Higher borrowing rates reduce liquidity, making investors nervous about speculative assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum . • Crypto is widely seen as a risk asset, closely correlated with stocks. Tariff-related anxiety makes investors retreat to safer assets like cash and government bonds, pulling capital out of crypto . 2. Mining Challenges & Hardware Costs • Tariffs on imported crypto hardware—particularly ASIC miners—are inflating costs (e.g. adding ~$1,250 per unit), eroding profitability. This strain weakens global hashrate growth and network health . 3. Liquidity Strains • Trade tensions slow down global commerce, reducing liquidity. With less money chasing high-risk assets, crypto prices tend to slide . 4. Immediate Market Reactions • Recent tariff announcements triggered sharp pullbacks: Bitcoin fell ~3–4%, Ethereum and altcoins followed suit in early August 2025. Mass liquidation events were triggered as investors exited positions en masse . • Major U.S. stock indices also fell sharply on August 1 following tariff news and a weak jobs report—which further reinforced risk‑off sentiment . What You Should Watch Key Dates & Policy Triggers • The July 9 reciprocal tariffs deadline (originally set to expire then) has been extended—most recently pushed to August 1—creating ongoing uncertainty. Markets often trade in the expectation of final decisions . Fed & Inflation Reports • Upcoming Consumer Price Index updates and Fed minutes will help determine whether policymakers lean toward maintaining rates or signaling cuts later in year. These decisions significantly influence crypto flows . Long-Term Contrarian Case • While tariffs stoke near-term volatility, some analysts see opportunities:

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