The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting hasn't started yet, but the market's nerves are already taut.

Powell and his team will face a challenging situation next week, with political pressure rising, trade policies full of uncertainties, and economic signals being quite mixed. All these factors combined make this decision particularly intriguing.

Interestingly, next week can be called 'data explosion week': the U.S. government will consecutively release GDP, employment reports, and the core inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve values the most. Currently, the market largely guesses that the Federal Reserve will continue to hold steady, but these data might just lead to a significant shift in policy direction.

First, let's look at a few key predictions:

1️⃣ The annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter, to be released next Wednesday, is estimated by economists to reach 2.4%—this is much better than the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. However, it should be clarified that this rebound is mainly supported by a narrowing trade deficit, and the degree of optimism should be measured with caution.

2️⃣ The non-farm payroll report for July, due on Friday, is expected to confirm that companies are not hiring as generously anymore. The surge in hiring in the education sector in June inflated the data, and this month’s new jobs will likely slow down, with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.2%.

3️⃣ In the June personal income and spending report, the core inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is focused on is expected to show a slightly faster month-on-month increase, indicating that the costs brought by tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumers, and price pressures are not dissipating quickly.

With so much data clustering together, each one could become a 'variable' that influences the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Even if everyone thinks the status quo will be maintained, once the data is released, the policy script might just need to be rewritten.