BTC is oscillating around $117,500, ETH is holding the $3,700 level, while mainstream altcoins like SOL are collectively declining, with over 120,000 people liquidated within 24 hours, and the liquidation amount exceeding $600 million. Those who are still shouting 'Long live bottom fishing' in the friend circle, heed my advice—this is not a bull market oscillation, the risks of a bear market are already looming!

Three major danger signals have emerged on-chain:

- A massive whale sell-off: In the past 48 hours, the net outflow from addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has reached 187,000 coins, setting a new high since November 2024, and these bitcoins are being crazily transferred to exchanges;

- High leverage: The leverage ratio for long positions across the network is still as high as 82%. On July 25 alone, positions worth $721 million were liquidated, with ETH leading in liquidation volume;

- Regulatory pressure: The US (Genius Bill) has officially taken effect, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold reserves at a 1:1 ratio, which directly impacts the operational logic of altcoin funding.

The macro situation is even worse. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has plummeted to 41%, US Treasury yields have surpassed 4.8%, and the US dollar index has soared to 104.5—funds are quickly fleeing from high-risk assets. Let's look at US stocks: Nvidia dropped 7% in a single day, and Tesla's stock price fell below $200; this is not just a crash in tech stocks, but a collective decline in market risk appetite!

From a technical perspective, a death cross has appeared:

- The daily MACD of BTC has formed a death cross; after breaking below the key support of $118,000, the next target points to $112,000 (July low);

- The 4-hour chart of ETH shows a 'Three Black Crows' pattern; if it loses $3,600, it will trigger algorithmic selling pressure, possibly dropping to $3,200;

- The situation for altcoins is even worse: SOL has fallen below $200, PEPE's market value has evaporated by 40%, and even MATIC, known as the 'king of resilience', has dropped below $1.2.

Top traders have urgently evacuated:

- Vivian warned at 4 AM: 'If BTC falls below $117,777, this round of increase will be completely over!';

- Altcoin Sherpa has liquidated altcoins: 'Now I only dare to use 5% of my position to bottom fish mainstream coins; small coins are all traps!';

- Pentoshi is shorting: 'ETH breaking $4,000 is a trap, the real target is $3,200!'

My suggestion is:

1. Act immediately: Liquidate all leveraged positions, reduce heavily held altcoins to below 5%, and do not let spot holdings exceed 10% of total funds;

2. Beware of rebound traps: If BTC rises to $119,000-$125,000, this is the last chance to evacuate;

3. Be cautious when bottom fishing: Only when BTC holds above $116,000 and ETH breaks above $3,800 can one consider building positions gradually.

Stop believing in the narrative of 'bull market sharp dips'! During the small bull market in 2024, a 10% pullback caused significant oscillation, and now with only a 5% drop, some are already calling for bottom fishing? Look at the on-chain data: the BTC reserves on exchanges have increased to 2.4 million coins, and the whales are ready.

My consistent principle is: preserve profits, surviving is the most important thing!#币安Alpha上新 #巨鲸动向