$TRUMP ’S NEW ASIA TARIFF STRATEGY SPARKS CONFUSION AMONG EXPORTERS
Donald Trump’s aggressive new tariff plan is sending shockwaves through Southeast Asia’s manufacturing hubs. Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines now face steep duties — 20% for Vietnam and 19% for Indonesia and the Philippines — on most of their exports to the U.S., totaling $352B annually. But the biggest uncertainty comes from a looming 40% tariff on “transshipped” goods — items Trump claims are simply Chinese products rerouted through third countries.
The problem? No one knows exactly what qualifies as “Chinese.” There’s no clear standard from the U.S. side. Are raw materials included? What about labor, machinery, or capital? While talks on “rules of origin” are underway with countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, no specific thresholds have been established. Thailand, yet to finalize a deal, may be forced to meet U.S. demands for up to 80% local content to avoid penalties.
Manufacturers are now scrambling. Many Southeast Asian exports rely heavily on Chinese components — 60% to 70%, according to Eurasia Group. Pulling those parts from the supply chain is a daunting task. Vietnam has capped Chinese raw materials at 30% and now requires the final product to be worth 40% more than its imported parts. But meeting these standards means overhauling entire operations — from suppliers to pricing models.
Governments are tightening customs, enforcing new rules, and penalizing suspected Chinese reroutes. But with the official U.S. guidelines still expected by August 1 — the same day tariffs kick in — uncertainty reigns.
Trump’s policy may aim to sever China from global supply chains, but right now, it’s putting Southeast Asia’s export economy in limbo — with massive implications for global trade.