Hmm... In the 1970s, a house in the U.S. cost thirty thousand dollars; now it's six hundred thousand. If you told an average American in the 1970s that housing prices would increase twentyfold, they probably wouldn't believe it. Many people lack a basic concept of exponential growth, but any item with a constant value priced in fiat currency will infinitely rise as long as the time scale is long enough.
From a simple mathematical perspective, the value of Bitcoin has only two possibilities: one is zero, and the other is not zero. The probability of going to zero certainly exists; anything can happen — the Earth could explode. However, as long as it does not go to zero, Bitcoin is likely to keep rising.
Assuming the value of Bitcoin is f(t)=c1, while the value of a certain fiat currency is g(t)=c2e^{-at}. Both c1 and c2 are constants. Don't ask me how the second formula came about; it's established by Keynes. With a moderate inflation rate of 2%, if t is measured in years, then a=0.00877. In reality? Just two points? So simply converting it, the value of Bitcoin expressed in g will grow exponentially over time, no matter how small a is. This is a simple mathematical problem, but using somewhat metaphysical language, it requires people to figure it out, and it needs more and more people to believe in it. In a sense, Bitcoin is indeed a religion, or a new type of supranational institution, but with free entry and exit, fairness, transparency, and voluntary participation, it is much stronger than most religions in the world. If you say Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, then may I ask, what do you think is the essence of money?
Those who measure all values in fiat currency actually do not understand the complex and contradictory top-down mechanisms of modern currency. The logic of Bitcoin is precisely the opposite of fiat currency: clear, simple, and bottom-up. Even if you are skeptical of Bitcoin, it is quite easy to see that holding Bitcoin is a form of risk hedging against fiat currency. As for how high the price (value) can go, it’s up to fate. As a Bitcoin fan, the expectation for Bitcoin is simply to survive, especially in places where banks go bankrupt or deposits are frozen; just to survive is enough, executing its function as a medium of exchange and a store of value. More and more people will understand that they need Bitcoin rather than Bitcoin needing them.
As for new coins and tokens, their value (price) has not been independent of Bitcoin for a single day, so they are merely financial derivatives of Bitcoin and do not constitute any increase in Bitcoin's issuance. For instance, Dogecoin was driven by the Bitcoin bull market and didn't move the other way around. You can certainly speculate on altcoins and NFTs to make money; it's all up to your skills. I choose the simplest strategy: hodl, because the significance of Bitcoin itself excites me enough.
To summarize my viewpoint, Bitcoin may fail and go to zero, but if it doesn't happen, Bitcoin will keep rising in fiat currency terms. If there are significant catastrophic events involving mainstream sovereign currencies, Bitcoin could reach a million in a short time. If not, with gradual mass adoption, it will crawl to a million, and if somehow Bitcoin falls out of favor, it will slowly rise at a rate lower than the inflation rate, making a million seem far away.
