⚠️ Growing concerns about a trade war between the United States and the European Union, coupled with a decline in platinum group metals prices, gave gold an opportunity to break the upper bound of its medium-term consolidation range between $3,250 and $3,400 per ounce.

• However, the White House's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan and a reduction in tariffs on Japanese goods brought gold back to the center of the recent consolidation range.

• Platinum and palladium, which performed remarkably well in 2025, benefited from rumors that gold was overbought. This prompted investors to diversify their portfolios toward less expensive metals. However, their heavy reliance on demand from the automotive sector makes them more sensitive to tariffs. Therefore, a reduction in these tariffs could restore their upward momentum, potentially pressuring gold amid renewed capital outflows.

• Gold, the leader in the precious metals sector, also remains under pressure due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Futures indicate the likelihood of one to two monetary easing measures in 2025, and increasing confidence in three steps in 2026. The more easing the Fed does, the greater the potential gains for gold.

• At the same time, gold failed to consolidate above $3,450 for the fourth time since April, reflecting both the presence of significant supply at these levels and investors' desire to take profits and seek alternatives. On the other hand, gold has benefited from strong catalysts this year. It was among the first financial instruments to return to new highs after the shock of Trump's tariffs, and its recent rise has coincided with the return of risk appetite to the markets.

• By the end of the week, gold retreated to its 50-day moving average. If the new week sees a sharp break above this level, it would be an important signal of a transition from consolidation to correction—something we already began to see in the Bitcoin market at the end of this week.

• If gold begins a broader correction, it could quickly decline toward $3,150 or even $3,050. Upside targets remain confined to the pre-Liberation Day (Japan Agreement) highs and 61.8% of gold's rise since the end of last year. Downside targets are close to half of this rise and are located near the 200-day moving average.

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