Whether Ethereum can rise further should be comprehensively judged from multiple dimensions, including fundamentals, market capital flows, and the macro environment. Currently, I believe there is a possibility for upward movement, but it also faces certain pressures. The specifics can be analyzed from the following aspects:
1. Potential factors supporting the rise
Capital rotation opportunities: Currently, market funds are more focused on Bitcoin, but historically, there has often been a rotation pattern of 'Bitcoin setting the stage, Ethereum taking the lead.' If funds gradually shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum, combined with substantial breakthroughs in Ethereum's own ecosystem (such as DeFi and L2 applications), it may drive prices upward.
Macroeconomic environment support: If the Federal Reserve starts a rate-cutting cycle, expectations for global liquidity easing will increase, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may see inflows. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum is likely to benefit from the overall market sentiment recovery.
Technical signals: Recently, Ethereum has formed short-term support around $3700. If it can break through critical resistance levels like $3765, bullish technical signals may further strengthen, attracting more short-term capital.
2. Pressures and uncertainties faced
Impact of fundamental changes: After transitioning to a PoS mechanism in 2022, Ethereum's narrative logic shifted from 'mining inflation' to 'staking deflation.' However, the development of the L2 ecosystem has not met expectations, leading to its 'ecosystem value capture' ability falling short of earlier market expectations, which may limit its upside potential.
Market sentiment divergence: Compared to Bitcoin's continued strength, Ethereum's performance in this bull market has been weak, failing to break previous all-time highs, leading some investors to doubt its long-term potential. Without strong catalysts (such as significant ecosystem upgrades or large-scale institutional purchases), the upward momentum may be constrained.
Short-term pullback risk: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. If Bitcoin experiences a significant pullback, Ethereum is likely to adjust as well. We need to wait for the pullback to stabilize before the upward trend becomes clearer.
From the above points of view:
There are opportunities for Ethereum to rise further, especially under the impetus of capital rotation, a loose macro environment, or ecosystem breakthroughs. However, one must be wary of the fundamental bottlenecks and pressures brought by market sentiment divergence. For ordinary investors, if holding spot, strategies can be dynamically adjusted based on key support levels (such as around $3700) and resistance levels (such as $3765 and $4000) to avoid chasing highs and killing lows; if not yet in the market, it is advisable to wait for clearer trend signals before making a move.
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