In March 2025, ETH plummeted by 9.55%. Liang Xi used 10,000 yuan of capital to roll short and made 10 million in just a few hours. The whole network was boiling, and countless people shouted "Rolling is the fastest way for ordinary people to turn around!" - But no one told you that Liang Xi had been liquidated 37 times before, with a cumulative loss of more than 5 million.
ETH time-sharing chart: Liang Xi’s rolling position and the corpse of the liquidated person
1. The essence of rolling positions: a “life and death game” under high leverage
1. Analysis of Liang Xi's "magic operation"
- Accurate judgment: ETH fluctuated widely downward, and Liang Xi took advantage of every wave of fluctuations by killing both long and short positions.
- Rolling over: After each profit, add the profit to the next transaction and use the compound interest effect to amplify the income.
- Strict stop loss: Although using high leverage, set a narrow stop loss to avoid large losses in a single transaction.
2. The “mathematical trap” of rolling positions
- Winning rate requirement: Assuming the winning rate of each transaction is 60%, the success rate of 10 consecutive rollovers is only 0.6^10=0.6%.
- Drawdown risk: Even if the first 9 times are successful, the 10th failure may result in a zero return (for example, in 2024, a user made a profit of 1 million by rolling over 9 times, but lost all the money in the 10th time).
- Liquidity restrictions: Large fund rolling operations will trigger reverse market fluctuations, leading to increased slippage (for example, in 2023, a fund caused an ETH flash crash due to rolling operations).
2. Tony’s “Rolling Guide”: Can ordinary people copy it?
1. Tony's legend and truth
- The myth of 50,000 to 20 million: Tony achieved a 400-fold return in one year by rolling positions, but behind this was 16 hours of watching the market every day and hundreds of trial and error.
- The core logic of rolling position:
Only roll positions in major trends (such as BTC’s unilateral rise in 2024)
Gradually reduce positions after making a profit (to prevent profit taking)
Never go all in (keep 50% of your funds to deal with extreme market conditions)
2. The ordinary people’s “rolling nightmare”
- Mental breakdown: After continuous stop losses, it is easy to trade emotionally (for example, in 2023, a user had a margin call due to three consecutive stop losses and the fourth time he made a heavy bet).
- Technical threshold: Rolling requires a strong ability to predict the market. Ordinary people often "see the direction right but lose money at the price".
- Time cost: Rolling positions are difficult to master even for full-time traders, let alone amateurs.
3. Alternatives to Rolling: A Low-Risk, High-Return Path
1. Fixed investment + grid strategy
- Fixed investment: Buy BTC/ETH with a fixed amount every month and hold it for the long term (the annualized return of BTC fixed investment will exceed 30% from 2021 to 2025).
- Grid: Buy low and sell high within the range of fluctuations to earn volatility profits (e.g., if ETH is in the range of $2,000-2,500 in 2024, the annualized return of the grid will reach 50%).
2. Trend tracking + trial and error with a small position
- Trend tracking: enter the market only when the general trend is clear (such as chasing the rise of BTC after it breaks through the historical high).
- Trial and error with a light position: Use a 1%-2% position to test the strategy, and gradually increase the position after verifying its effectiveness.
3. Study on-chain data
- Whale monitoring: Track institutional movements through tools such as Glassnode (e.g. after a whale increased its holdings of ETH in 2024, the price rose by 20% within a week).
- Sentiment Indicator: Use the Fear and Greed Index to identify extreme market sentiment (e.g. buy when the index is <20, sell when it is >80).
(Rolling Alternative)
✅ Fixed investment + grid practical template
✅ Trend following strategy explained
✅ On-chain data monitoring tools
Rolling is a weapon for geniuses, but a grave for ordinary people - in this market, living long is more important than making money quickly.
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