So, guys! Did you catch this rise in crypto? If so, excellent! If not… Uh-oh…!

But check this out!

Everything that goes up, comes down! Law of physics. 😂

Now, since the asset market is not a physics formula but a math one, this rule would not… apply!!

However, the markets in general use another formula: MARKET CYCLES.

These are phases where movements are differentiated: moments of decline, accumulation, recovery, deflation, inflation, fear, greed, etc. It's like a constant dance, with its own rhythms and steps.

Obviously, there are various indicators for us to analyze at what moment we are in the cycle. And this is where things get interesting!

EYE ON THE ALTCOIN INDEX

I've been talking for a while about the ALTCOIN INDEX. This index measures the dominance between $BTC Bitcoin and #ALTC Altcoin in the crypto market. It's like a tug of war between the big boss and the rest of the crowd!

* Numbers below 50 demonstrate dominance of the boss $BTC Boss is boss, right, dad!?

* Numbers above 50 indicate Altcoin dominance.

* 50 is that, stability, a technical tie.

When I started tracking this indicator 3 months ago, it was at 17. The market was bearish, and the #Medo and #Ganância indicators were around 28-30 – another thermometer that shows player sentiment. A lot of caution and little boldness!

THE EXPLOSION AND THE CORRECTION: A LIGHTNING ALTSEASON?

A few weeks ago, there was a bullish movement in crypto, driven by the influx of capital into BTC ETFs, regulations, and institutional investors jumping in to buy. This initiated a bullish rally, both in prices and in indices.

After BTC broke historical highs, Ethereum ( $ETH ) gained momentum, initiating a considerable rise in Altcoins. It was a true "shake-up" in the market!

This boosted the Altcoin Index, which reached 54! The sentiment indicator, in turn, hit 72 – pure greed in the air. That's when the long-awaited Altseason "began", the bull market movement of the Altcoins.

However, there is no infinite rise, and good profit is profit in the pocket. In the last 3 days, we saw a relatively strong correction/realization. The market took a breather, you know?

The Altcoin Index dropped to 40, returning to BTC dominance. The boss is back in charge!

WHAT'S NEXT? THE NEAR FUTURE ON THE CRYPTO RADAR

The big question now is: will we see this index above 50 again? Will we see another bullish rally and a new Altseason? Or are we entering the dreaded Crypto Winter?

The truth is that the crypto market is unpredictable by nature, but some signs can give us a clue. The recent correction, although strong, can be seen both as a healthy profit-taking after a significant rise, as well as a portent of a period of lateralization or decline.

For the Altcoin Index to return above 50, we would need to see a new massive influx of capital into Altcoins, perhaps driven by technological innovations, strategic partnerships, or macroeconomic events that favor higher-risk assets. Continued institutional interest in the entire crypto ecosystem will also be crucial.

However, if global risk aversion increases, or if Bitcoin consolidates its dominance without capital spreading to Altcoins, the scenario of a "crypto winter" could strengthen. This would mean a prolonged period of declining prices and low liquidity for Altcoins.

The key is to continue monitoring information and indicators, always keeping our risk management up to date. Don't fall into #FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and don't get carried away by market narratives. A cold analysis of the data and patience are your greatest allies.

So, what's the next round? What do you all think? 😁

Good studies and God bless you.