Here is an in-depth analysis according to the rules of the SMC school and Elliott waves for the price direction of SEI/USDT towards a bottom at 0.248, with subsequent expectations for partial closure of the FVG area and achieving wave extensions reaching 2.61 or 3.61 Fibo Extension:
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🎯 1. Current technical situation and correction
In terms of Elliott waves, we see that wave ① ended around 0.32–0.39 (according to analysis from BraveNewCoin and FXStreet).
After that, we entered corrective wave ②, which is likely a Zigzag or Triangular, with strong support between 0.27–0.26.
SMC focuses on Fair Value Gaps (FVG), where it is expected that the price may return to fill the fair value gap under correction, potentially reaching the midpoint of this gap (around 50% of it), which corresponds to a bottom area at 0.248.
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🧱 2. Building the scenario according to SMC + FVG
1. First phase: The price heads towards 0.248 to close part of the gap (or its midpoint).
2. Second phase: Afterwards, it rebounds from the mentioned bottom, starting an upward wave ③, which will likely be longer than wave ①.
3. Extension Phase: Based on Fibonacci extensions:
2.61 Fibo extension: Indicates that the price may reach approximately 2.61 × height of the first wave ②.
3.61 Fibo extension: A more optimistic scenario, perhaps exceeding the ceiling of 0.64 (according to BraveNewCoin).
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📊 3. Risk Management and Key Points
Element Value Direction
Central support 0.248 – 0.26 Strong bottom area according to SMC
End point of wave ② ↔ 0.248 Beginning of deep correction
Invalidation of the scenario Below 0.21 Support is lost and a larger corrective wave occurs
Buy signal Rebound from ~0.248 Before entering a new upward wave
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🔍 4. Final summary of recommendations
According to this scenario, SEI/USDT may soon retrace towards 0.248, closing a partially or fully remaining Fair Value Gap (FVG), then rising strongly within wave ③. This wave could lead to Fibonacci extensions between 2.61 and 3.61 times the size of the corrective wave, which could raise the price to levels between 0.6 and 0.9+ depending on the size of the wave.
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✅ Recommendations for short-term investors
Strong monitoring of the 0.248–0.26 area: If a rebound appears here, it is a strong entry signal.
Follow the breakout above ~0.32 (end of wave ②): to confirm the start of wave ③.
Don't forget to set a stop loss below 0.21 in anticipation of a deeper corrective path.
This scenario is derived from:
Elliott wave analysis to enter wave ③
FVG analysis and SMC correction as a support and driving tool for reversal.
I hope this technical article is useful and clear for your follow-up on the upcoming price direction. 🚀