Missed the surge of pengu, why I want to short it with a small position
The rise of pengu has been incredible, skyrocketing without hardly any pullbacks. I reckon the core reason for its rise is the application for an ETF. Who knows, it might even become a meme coin that can launch an ETF like doge.
However, when I looked at the news earlier, the probability of doge's ETF approval was over 90%, while pengu's approval probability was only 40%. I even specifically checked with ChatGPT, and the ETF application for pengu was submitted by a small institution. Because of these factors, I initially decided not to invest in pengu, thinking it wouldn't pass the ETF approval.
Who would have thought, it didn't care whether it could get approved or not; it just surged first. Additionally, several exchanges recently changed their avatars to penguins, which boosted the hype significantly, leading to an astonishing increase.
But missing out is missing out, there's nothing I can do. Even if I had bought in at that time, I wouldn't have been able to invest heavily. Looking back, even a small position would have been better; it was truly a misjudgment.
The first scenario is that the hype around pengu continues to rise, the community becomes increasingly active, and more funds flow in, ultimately resulting in a miraculous ETF approval. However, I think this possibility is too small.
The second scenario is that the ETF application is purely for hype and is unlikely to get approved. The institution itself knows that it won't pass; it's just using this as a pretext to create buzz. As soon as there’s any slightly negative news from the SEC in the U.S., its current price will definitely struggle to hold up.
I currently lean towards the second possibility. Why? Besides the previously mentioned weak institution and low approval probability, there's another point. The meme leader recognized in this bull market is pepe, whose current status and market value were built through multiple endorsements from Musk and Trump. Now that pengu's market cap is almost catching up with pepe, estimating based on pepe's market cap, pengu's rise seems a bit absurd.
So, I plan to look for opportunities to short pengu with a small position. If Ethereum rises to around 4000 and consistently fails to break above that range, I will take action.
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