In the past half month of the big market trend, I only got pig's trotter rice, I need to review it.
After reaching the phase high on May 22, the market started about a month and a half of sideways oscillation (black box), and finally broke out upward on July 10.
I opened some long positions at the end of the oscillation range, but I was continuously stopped out in the repeated fluctuations before the breakout. Although there were some profits, this round of big rise should have yielded substantial gains, but it turned into just pig's trotter rice, which is quite regrettable.
Repeated hesitations before the breakout: That was when the grand and beautiful bill was passed and several cryptocurrency bills were hotly discussed, with a visibly strong market. From a structural perspective (red trend line and blue box), it seemed to have broken out of the oscillation range.
But during the actual holding process, I clearly felt the difficulty of the breakout—the price oscillated repeatedly near the key trend line. Since the price is already very high now, I didn't dare to set a large stop loss, leading to being stopped out multiple times by small fluctuations.
After several days of consecutive stop losses and concerns about the upcoming 'news favorable turn back,' my mindset became more conservative. I subsequently only held small positions in BTC and SOL long positions.
Misjudgment of ETH: On July 10, when BTC broke out, based on the ETH/BTC exchange rate and the price itself showing a 'triple top' suppression pattern, I judged the risk to be high and did not dare to chase in. Coupled with the market's FUD regarding ETH for a long one or two years, it formed a mental inertia that made me reluctant to go long on Ethereum.
Even after the breakout, when a small ascending channel formed for entry, I still didn't dare to add positions, ultimately completely missing out on Ethereum.
Reflection:
Deficiencies in position management: The previous long position base was not maintained, resulting in a lack of sufficient low-cost profit cushion for the long positions before the breakout, failing to withstand the fluctuations before the breakout, and coupled with small stop losses, leading to continuous stop losses.
Mindset affects execution: After consecutive stop losses, I hesitated. Even when a true breakout signal appeared, I didn't dare to increase my position, fearing getting hit for chasing high.
Path dependence & FUD interference: The pain of holding ETH over the past two years, combined with the sustained market FUD, formed a fixed mindset, causing me to miss structural opportunities.
Such trending markets may only occur once or twice a year, missing out is quite regrettable, and I need to reflect well.