The first question is, what is the main narrative of the entire cryptocurrency circle in this round?
BTC 15000➡️120000
The entire atypical bull market has lasted for two and a half years. Why do we say this is an atypical bull market? Because this is a bull market that erupted during a tightening cycle.
Excluding the overall rebound from the super oversold crypto market at the beginning of the bull (after the big bear in 2022) and the various narratives that were later debunked (L2, modularization, etc.), and excluding the super MEME season arising from the overall lack of liquidity in the middle of the bull; from an overall perspective, there is still nothing exciting in the main narrative within the crypto space. This round of the bull market can basically be defined as a 'capital bull' led by the United States after the east and west exchanged hands in the 20-21 season.
The characteristic of this bull market is that altcoins will rebound severely in every small level trend, while Bitcoin will run steadily.
The second question, Ethereum
ETH (1300➡️3800)
Following the line of thought from the first question, let's look at Ethereum; before looking at Ethereum, let’s first deconstruct the various stages of the big pancake’s bull market from 15476➡️30000, which experienced a super oversold rebound after a deep bear market. But after 30000? To now 120000? Expectations of interest rate cuts? ETF expectations and funds flowing in after the ETF approval?
If we look at the entire trend of the big pancake after it broke through 30,000 in October 2023, we will have the answer.
Is the entire range (202310➡️now) too calm? Are there any negative factors in between? The Japanese interest rate issue, the war issue, the favorable factors after Trump took office, the tariff war... but did these delay the rise of the big pancake? Not only did it not delay it, but it also reached new highs all the way. I want to say this is the top scheme of the 'Mikeseile'.
Why do we need to deconstruct the big pancake first? Because the big pancake is the template that Ethereum has already run out. What we can see now is that capital is starting to replicate the path of the big pancake on Ethereum.
Why did Ethereum rise so fast from 1300 to 3800, not giving people a chance to react? Except for a brief initial consolidation, it basically kept an eye on the small-scale technical indicators all the way?
Because this road is too familiar, the big pancake just finished running.
The third question: The next line of thought
Following the clarified line of thought, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. Altcoins are merely companions in the run; at least until there is enough exciting internal narrative in the crypto space, altcoins can only be participants in the super oversold rebound; do you think it’s easy to pick 3-5 coins with a 10,000% increase among tens of thousands of coins? Or is it easier to make 100% on Bitcoin or Ethereum?
If you want to speculate on the returns of the former, then why not see if your position has outperformed the gains of Bitcoin and Ethereum?
2. We need to give Ethereum enough imagination space. Although this question is simple, it's not easy to execute. After all, chasing highs is for the unfortunate; our trading system and our technical system naturally reject this emotion and capital-driven rise.
3. In a bull market, technical indicators, especially small-scale indicators, are ineffective; this is why many technical traders missed out or got off in the middle of this round.
Overbought? Divergence? Waiting for a pullback? The result of waiting for a pullback is that getting off makes it difficult to get back on; because a bull market is always about emotions, not about any technology, as bull markets are irrational.
Finally: The bull market is a great retreat.
We cannot predict the overall market peak, and predicting the peaks of individual coins is also very difficult. What we can do is to reasonably plan our positions and strategies to deal with market trends that we cannot accurately predict.
Taking profits is not wrong, chasing highs is not wrong; what’s wrong is chasing higher after taking profits, and not stopping losses after chasing highs, leading to repeated harvesting after being eroded by crazy emotions.
Do you remember what the stock market guru said a few days ago: After the attack, the first thing to think about is always defense; and defense without attack is not called defense, it's called losing money; achieving a balance between offense and defense is a top-level skill;
I want to say, don't overthink, and don't want too much; in a simple market, just earn the money you should earn within your ability!
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Making money is the main focus
The opportunity has arrived, profits are soaring! Seize the moment, and with Brother Cheng, doubling your wealth is not a dream.
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