Trump temporarily retains Powell, and the Fed's interest rate cuts may be delayed! The cryptocurrency market has sharply declined but hides opportunities: institutions bet on altcoin season, and the window for pullback layout may have opened.
BlockBeats reports that White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that Trump has no plans to fire Powell and emphasized that Powell needs to lower interest rates, pointing out that the White House is not concerned about the deficit issues brought by the tax cut proposal.
Note: Although Trump cannot directly fire Powell, he absolutely has the ability to do so; however, the cost behind it is not worth it.
With the emergence of this news, the entire cryptocurrency market also experienced a temporary downturn.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy expectations indicate: the current market signals are quite clear, with a 95% probability of no rate cut in July; even in September, the probability of maintaining interest rates is still 39%, with a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut and single-digit probability for a 50 basis point cut. Most importantly, the current inflation level in the U.S. is still above the Fed's 2% target, and short-term risks are more likely to be upward. Therefore, during the release of CPI data in July and August, the Fed will most likely choose to remain cautious. It will not be until the interest rate meeting on September 17 that the Fed can more effectively and clearly assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, which means interest rate cuts are likely to be delayed until October or later.
In the cryptocurrency market, there are clear structural changes. According to Coinmarketcap's altcoin season index, about 47 projects among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. With recent Bitcoin purchases decreasing, institutional attention has shifted to altcoin series. A spokesperson from the globally renowned venture capital firm DWF Labs stated that the altcoin season has just begun.
In-depth analysis shows that the dominant force in this round of the cryptocurrency cycle is entirely institutional behavior. On one hand, benefiting from the stablecoin regulatory framework brought by the GENIUS Act, institutional investment focus has begun to shift towards altcoins; on the other hand, the activity of bullish spread trading in the options market has significantly increased, with bullish spread positions expiring from September to December being established in large volumes, fully indicating that the market's bullish sentiment for the fourth quarter of this year is extremely optimistic.
Moreover, institutions can act as leaders. Once the stablecoin regulatory framework is clarified, adjusting investment direction towards altcoins will provide continuous momentum for altcoins, and the increasing market share of altcoins is a very obvious manifestation! Perhaps a new round of altcoin season has already begun, but we are unaware. For everyone, this stage of pullback layout may be a very good opportunity!
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