CITIC Securities Latest Report: The US Job Market Can Still Hold Up!

Recently, the data from the US job market is quite interesting—although there seem to be some small fluctuations, overall it is still quite stable. So, what's going on here?

First, let's look at the not-so-good data:

- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits has increased (which indicates that some people have indeed lost their jobs)

- The hiring intentions of private enterprises are declining (companies are not as eager to hire)

But the key indicators are still stable:

- The number of new non-farm jobs (that is, newly created job positions) — hasn't collapsed and is holding up quite well

- The unemployment rate hasn't really increased, overall it's manageable

What will the Federal Reserve do? Most likely continue to observe!

CITIC Securities believes that given the current situation, the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in July is very low.

Why? Because the job market hasn't deteriorated to the point where immediate rate cuts are necessary to rescue it, so the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose to wait and see, gathering more data before making a decision.

In simple terms: Although there are some small issues in the US job market, it hasn't reached a breaking point, so don't expect the Federal Reserve to immediately ease monetary policy to rescue the market.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year? Feel free to share your thoughts!