📈 BTC/USDT 4H Analysis – Is a Breakout Imminent?
Bitcoin is consolidating after a 35% rally in the past few weeks. It’s forming a bullish ascending triangle, suggesting a potential breakout above $120K. Here’s a full breakdown 👇
🔍 Key Technical Zones:
📍 Resistance (OB-1): $117.3K – $120.7K
→ Heavy rejection zone, high liquidation cluster
📍 Demand (OB-2): $107.7K – $110.7K
→ Golden fib zone + strong impulse base
📍 Mid Pivot: $117.25K (POC level)
→ High volume node, critical reaction zone
📍 Support Levels:
→ $109.5K – Historical support
→ $103.3K – Weekly breakout retest zone
📐 Price Structure:
🔺 Ascending Triangle:
→ Higher lows + flat top at $120K
→ If breakout confirms, target: $130K+
❌ No bearish signs:
→ No Head & Shoulders, No bear flags
📊 Indicators:
✅ EMA Stack: Bullish (20 > 50 > 200)
✅ RSI: Neutral at 53 (room to run)
✅ MACD: Bullish crossover (green histo)
✅ Bollinger Bands: Tightening — breakout likely
✅ Volume:
→ Pump = +15% avg volume
→ Dump = -40% avg volume
🧠 Smart Money & Order Flow:
📌 $120K: 3 failed attempts → strong seller absorb zone
📌 $108K–111K: Whale & miner defense zone
📌 Heatmaps: $450M+ shorts above $120K → breakout fuel
🌍 Macro & Sentiment Outlook:
⚡ Fed Policy: Dovish stance → bullish for crypto
📉 DXY: Weak near 98 → supportive for BTC
📈 S&P500: Risk-on mood → crypto follows
💸 ETF Inflows: $4.5B in July → smart money entering
🧠 Sentiment Index: 71 (Greed) → bullish but overheated
🎯 Trade Setup:
$BTC Setup Metric
Entry
$118,500 (pullback buy)
Stop Loss
$115,000 (below trend base)
Targets
TP1: $122K | TP2: $125K | TP3: $130K
Win Probability:72% (based on pattern stats)
Hit Rates:TP1: 85% | TP2: 63% | TP3: 44%
Bias
Long
Risk Level:Medium
🧬 Trade Path Projection:
Coiling Phase: Sideways in 117.8K–119K range
Breakout: Push above $120K → TP1 hits
Retest: Reclaim $120K as new support
Continuation: Run toward TP2 & TP3
IgniteX Suggests:Don’t chase the breakout. Wait for pullbacks or confirmed retest entries. Max 2% capital per trade.
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