Here is a detailed analysis of Bitcoin in July 2025, based on the provided research results:
### 1. Current Price and Trends
- On 07/18/2025, Bitcoin was priced at $118,000 (R$ 659,879.92), maintaining a positive trend after surpassing the psychological resistance of $120,000.
- On 07/16, BTC recovered to $119,000 (R$ 663,921.28) after a previous drop, demonstrating resilience in the face of inflation data in the US.
### 2. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors
- Institutional Adoption: Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded record inflows, with over $4 billion in June, reinforcing demand.
- Government Support: The "Cryptography Week" in the US Congress and support from the Trump administration boosted regulatory optimism.
- Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation data above expectations in the US (CPI +0.3% in June) reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, temporarily pressuring the market.
### 3. Technical Analysis
- Supports and Resistances:
- Supports: $115,000 (short term), $111,980 (intermediate), $100,000 (psychological).
- Resistances: $120,000 (partially broken), $123,865 (next target), $130,000 (potential all-time high).
- Indicators: RSI in overbought territory at times, suggesting possible corrections, but institutional buying volume sustains the rise.
### 4. Scenarios for July 2025
- Optimistic: If BTC breaks $120,000 with volume, it could aim for $130,000–140,000, driven by ETFs and supply scarcity (miners produce 450 BTC/day vs. demand of 8,200 BTC/day).
- Moderate: Consolidation between $110,000–125,000, awaiting new regulatory or macroeconomic catalysts.
- Pessimistic: Correction to $100,000–105,000 if profit-taking occurs or global conditions worsen.
### 5. Risks and Opportunities
- Risks:
- Geopolitical volatility (e.g., Iran-Israel tensions).
- Possible speculative bubble due to institutional influx without massive retail adoption.
- Opportunities:
- Growth of the Lightning Network (5,000 BTC in channels) and adoption by companies (e.g., global fast-food chain).
- Long-term forecasts point to $250,000 by 2025 and $1 million by 2035.
### 6. Comparison with Altcoins
- BTC dominates 65% of the market, while altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have mixed performance.
- Ethereum (ETH) rose 5% in 24h ($3,625), and Solana (SOL) advanced 5.25% ($182.70), but still below BTC in annual appreciation.
### Conclusion
July 2025 presents a Bitcoin in consolidation after a historic rally, with solid fundamentals (institutional demand, halving 2024) but vulnerable to technical corrections. The key to new highs will be overcoming $120,000 with sustained volume, while losing $115,000 may signal a deeper correction. In the medium term, supply scarcity and regulatory adoption remain favorable.
For investors, the recommendation is to monitor ETF flows, US macro data, and institutional movements (e.g., MicroStrategy, which holds 597,000 BTC).
