The launch of the altcoin market is always one of the most concerning topics for investors. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shared his latest views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL in a special interview at the 2025 Dubai Token2049, particularly pointing out the trigger conditions for the altcoin season and the investment potential of ETH and SOL. Let's discuss the timing of the altcoin season and which is more worth investing in: ETH or SOL.
When will the altcoin season start?
I believe that the arrival of the altcoin season requires Bitcoin to first break through $120,000 and surge to the range of $150,000-$200,000. This is expected in the summer of 2025 or early third quarter (August-October). This judgment is based on the U.S. Treasury's 'invisible money printing' operations—through the consumption of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and other accounting methods, the actual deficit far exceeds official data. The borrowing scale in Q1-Q3 of 2025 is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year, which will boost global dollar liquidity, benefiting risk assets like BTC. The altcoin season requires ETH to break through $4,200 and SOL to exceed $300 for funds to rotate from BTC into altcoins. Currently, the BTC price is about $120,000, and the window for the altcoin season seems to be approaching. However, I must remind you that this altcoin season will not see all coins rise together as in 2021. Many overvalued, low liquidity, and lack of user and income 'zombie coins' may continue to remain dormant, with funds chasing new narratives like AI Agents or new DeFi projects.
ETH vs SOL: Who is stronger?
In the competition between ETH and SOL, Hayes clearly favors ETH's performance in the next 18-24 months. Although SOL has risen from $7 in 2020 to $265, far outpacing ETH's performance, Hayes believes ETH has stronger fundamental advantages: it has the highest TVL ($128 billion, far exceeding SOL's $9.38 billion), the most developers (although its growth rate is slightly lower than SOL's 17.7%, the absolute number leads), and a more secure PoS mechanism. The Pectra upgrade of ETH in May 2025 optimized user experience, with its price rising from $2,646 a month ago to $2,573 (53% of the historical high of $4,878), showing rebound momentum. Although SOL is currently thriving in the Meme craze (such as Pump.fun) and NFT/GameFi, Hayes believes its long-term risk-return ratio is not as favorable as ETH's, partly due to SOL's level of decentralization and stability being still in question. The moat of the Meme craze is not strong and may be replicated by other chains.
Investment advice for the timing of the altcoin season:
Closely watch whether BTC breaks through $120,000 and surges towards $150,000-$200,000, with July-September being the key window for the altcoin season. Keep an eye on market dynamics and on-chain data (such as TVL, trading volume) to capture rotation signals.
Regarding whether ETH or SOL is more suitable for long-term allocation? I believe ETH is more suitable for long-term allocation, with short-term attention on its potential to break through $4,000-$5,000. SOL still has upward space driven by Meme and GameFi in the short term, but caution is advised regarding pullback risks, suggesting waiting for a pullback to $140-$150. Risk warning: the altcoin season is selective, avoiding 'dinosaur coins' without fundamentals. The crypto market is highly volatile, suggesting small position operations, setting stop losses, and diversifying investments in BTC, ETH, and SOL. In summary, Hayes's predictions have ignited market expectations for the altcoin season: after BTC breaks $120,000, funds may rotate to altcoins in the third quarter, with ETH holding more long-term potential due to its strong fundamentals, while SOL relies on Meme and GameFi to maintain short-term heat. However, the community's expectations for the altcoin season need to be calm; the madness of 2021 is hard to replicate. Want to seize the opportunity? Keep an eye on BTC trends and market sentiment, but be careful not to get carried away by emotions! The risks of cryptocurrencies are high, so research thoroughly before acting!
