📉 Can the market be predicted with probabilities? 🤔

Many content creators use probabilistic terms giving a false idea that something is "almost certain" to happen, when in reality it is not so. The price by itself does not meet the necessary conditions to apply predictive statistics rigorously.

🎲 Why doesn't it work like in a mathematical experiment?

There are no independent or identical samples: each candle on the chart is unique by context.

Time is not a reliable statistical variable: indicators that depend on time (like moving averages) violate basic assumptions.

You cannot perform a classic hypothesis test: there is no defined population, no stable distribution, and no possibility to replicate scenarios.

🔍 Mathematicians like Benoît Mandelbrot (father of chaos in markets) say:

"Prices do not follow normal distributions. The market is neither predictable nor linear."

Each market moment is unique: there is no repeatability or experimental control.

Even if a pattern repeated in the past, it does not imply that it has statistical predictive value. It only reflects an empirical frequency, not a real mathematical probability.

✅ When is it USEFUL to use Probability and Statistics?

To study the frequency of simple patterns (like reversals after gaps)

To measure historical volatility or perform Monte Carlo simulations

To estimate risk vs return in multiple scenarios

But not to predict the future.

📣 Conclusion:

Price action cannot be analyzed lightly; it is understood with context, management, and experience.

Do not be swayed by assumed percentages of probability that something will happen when in reality they do not have a solid foundation.

Statistics is not a magic ball — it is a tool for measuring, not for guessing.

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