When markets rally too long, too smoothly — the real risk isn’t volatility. It’s complacency.
📊 Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey shows an interesting — and dangerous — setup:
🧠 Institutional sentiment is at a 17-month high 💰 Cash levels are at a cycle low 🧾 Risk positions are the most aggressive since late 2021
In short: fund managers are all-in, with no Plan B.
That’s not inherently bearish — but it’s fragile. If a macro shock hits (like EU–US tariff friction, delayed rate cuts, or geopolitical tension), there’s no dry powder left. Just one direction: exit.
Meanwhile, in crypto: – BTC rejected from $117K – Over $150M liquidated in 24h – ETF flows dipping – Greed Index above 70
Combine that with a stock market built on optimism — and the setup gets thin.
🧭 Markets don’t top on fear. They top on overconfidence.
Watch for stress in TradFi to spill into crypto. The narrative is still bullish — but the positioning isn’t prepared for bad news.
No hedge. No margin of safety. Just momentum. And momentum cuts both ways.
