At three in the morning, crypto traders' computer screens are still flickering—Dogecoin was hammered by a $39 million sell order, questioning its very existence, while Cardano was being labeled 'fraud coin' and surged 92%, and Solana quietly approached the last defense line of $180—today's crypto market is even more exciting than a TV drama! 📺
These three brothers are increasingly thrilling: DOGE trembles before the '$0.36 spell,' ADA surged to become a 'dark horse' thanks to controversial traffic, while SOL is being shouted by analysts as 'breakthrough means bull market'! Who can break through next week? Please keep this operation guide handy 👇
🐶 Dogecoin (DOGE): $39 million sell-off crashes the price, why can't the $0.36 "spell" be broken?
If there is a "retail investor totem" in the crypto world, it must be Dogecoin (DOGE). From Musk's live endorsements to retail investors banding together to pump it up, this "joke coin" born in 2013 has turned "tip culture" into a business worth billions.
But recently, it hasn't been going well—on July 19th, spot traders suddenly sold $39 million of DOGE (the largest single-day sell-off since January!), directly dropping the price from $0.254 to around $0.245, with the 24-hour increase shrinking from 7.5% to just 2%. 📉
💡 Why is $0.36 called the "spell"? Looking back at the historical K-line of Dogecoin, $0.36 is like an "invisible ceiling":
In April 2021, DOGE first surged to $0.36, but then fell 60% due to Tesla's cessation of Bitcoin payments, Musk's jibe that "Dogecoin is a scam," and other negative news;
In October 2023, DOGE, benefiting from the "meme coin boom" after the FTX bankruptcy, hit $0.36 again, but because of the market panic caused by FTX founder SBF's court appearance, it fell back to $0.06.
📉 In May this year, DOGE touched $0.36 for the third time, but due to the positive effects of Bitcoin's halving being realized, funds shifted to higher-market-cap altcoins, ultimately resulting in no gains.
📊 Technical aspect: Four tests, three failures, can this time be an exception? Currently, DOGE is testing the key resistance level of $0.2478 for the fourth time—this position is the "top of the fluctuation box" from December 2023 to June 2024, and the previous three attempts to break through ended with "long upper shadows + volume drops" (for example, on March 28, DOGE rose to $0.258 but was smashed back to $0.23 within 30 minutes, with a single-day volatility exceeding 15%).
More crucially, Glassnode's UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) shows that DOGE will face significant long-term obstacles.
Data shows that although memecoins have successfully broken the resistance level of $0.20, another major resistance level lies at $0.36. This level may pose a long-term threat to further increases.
The liquidation heat map presents different scenarios:
From the liquidity distribution perspective, DOGE currently faces a critical dividing line between bulls and bears. CoinGlass data shows:
The $0.259-$0.260 range is stacked with $11.21 million in sell order pressure, while $0.249-$0.250 has $11.61 million in buy order support. This forms a typical "sandwich" pattern.
Two possible paths:
1) Break above the upper resistance then retest support, confirm, and start a new trend;
2) Test the support first before attacking resistance, but may face stronger selling pressure.
The key risk point is: If the $0.249 support fails and does not recover quickly, there is a lack of effective support below, which may trigger a deep correction. The current market is at a critical decision-making moment, and it is essential to closely monitor the defensive situation at these two price levels.
🔥 Retail vs. Institutions: Who is bottom-fishing? Who is fleeing? CoinGlass's net flow data from spot exchanges shows that in the past 24 hours, DOGE had a net outflow of $39 million, with 90% coming from small and medium-sized exchanges (the gathering place for retail investors).
On the other hand, the on-chain analysis platform Nansen found that "whale wallets" (holding over $10 million) are quietly buying—an anonymous whale bought 5 million DOGE (about $1.2 million) around the $0.24 mark, with a note saying "long-term hold, waiting for Musk to shout again."
🎯 Conclusion:
In the short term, with $0.2478 resistance + $39 million selling pressure, DOGE is likely to fluctuate between $0.23-$0.25; for a long-term breakthrough of $0.36, two conditions are needed—either Bitcoin starts a new bull market to attract incremental funds, or Musk and other "top influencers" once again create momentum for DOGE.
🧠 Cardano (ADA): Surging 92% amidst controversy, "fraud coin" or "technical faction"?
While Dogecoin is in turmoil from the sell-off, Cardano (ADA) is having a "comeback drama"—on July 18th, ADA's trading volume suddenly surged 92.42% (from $2.4 billion to $4.53 billion), futures open interest exceeded $1.45 billion, and financing rates rose to 0.0285 (strong bullish signal)! 🚀
On Binance, the long/short ratio for top ADA/USDT traders is close to 3:1, indicating a dominant long position and an increased expectation for further rises.
However, the background of this revelry is actually a "fraud controversy"—user Robin Engraf accused Cardano employees of participating in fraudulent transactions and withdrawals, even accusing them: "Your company condones theft!"
🔍 The story of the controversy: How did a "Rashomon" ignite traffic? The story begins with an anonymous email. On July 15, user Engraf claimed that while trading on the Cardano chain, he encountered a "system vulnerability" that caused his funds to be frozen, and when he contacted customer service, he was told he "had to pay a fee to unfreeze," ultimately losing $50,000. He pointed the finger at the Cardano core team, claiming "employees colluded with hackers."
After the news fermented, founder Charles Hoskinson directly entered the fray: "Will he apologize for accusing me of stealing his money? No... so public humiliation is the only deterrent." 🔥
💥 Why didn't the controversy extinguish the bullish momentum? Logically, "fraud allegations" + founders tearing each other apart should be enough to cause ADA to crash, but reality ran counter to expectations:
Traffic effect: The controversy itself became free advertising, with Google searches for "Cardano fraud" surging 300%, as more outsiders began to pay attention to ADA.
Technical endorsement: Cardano has recently frequently released positive news about "mainnet upgrades"—on July 16, it officially announced the completion of the "Hydra 3.0" upgrade, increasing transaction throughput from 250 TPS to 500 TPS (close to three times that of Ethereum).
Capital rotation: Part of the funds from the DOGE sell-off flowed into ADA; Coinglass data shows that on July 18, ADA saw a net inflow of $230 million, with 60% coming from DOGE outflows.
⚠️ Technical aspect: Overbought warning has been triggered!
Despite the fierce upward momentum, ADA's technical indicators are frantically "warning":
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is as high as 82.17, far exceeding the overbought threshold of 70, historically when ADA's RSI exceeds 80, the average correction is 15% (the last time was in March 2024, when RSI 83 fell 20%).
Although the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) maintains a golden cross, the red bars (bullish momentum) are beginning to narrow, showing a weakening of bullish strength.
🎯 Conclusion:
ADA's surge seems more like a "traffic bubble brought by controversy"; if it cannot hold the $0.85 support level (the low point on July 18), it may retrace to the $0.75-$0.80 range. Long-term, it depends on whether "Hydra 3.0" can truly enhance ecosystem activity — after all, the core of public chain competition is "the number of developers + TVL (Total Value Locked)," while Cardano's current TVL is only $600 million, far lower than Ethereum's ($58 billion) and Solana's ($3 billion).
⚡ Solana (SOL): Approaching the final resistance level, is the "real bull market" coming?
While DOGE and ADA are still "entangled," Solana (SOL) is quietly approaching the "final barrier"—$180.
🚀 Soared 10% in a week, SOL aims for new highs!
In the past week, Solana (SOL) surged nearly 10% as if it had been injected with adrenaline, successfully reclaiming the key area of $160, and is now fiercely battling the last line of defense at $180! 📈 Analysts are rubbing their hands: "As long as this barrier is broken, SOL could take off directly towards $200!"
💸 $180 million short squeeze?
As Bitcoin breaks historical highs, the entire crypto market's market cap is nearing $4 trillion, and Solana is also taking the opportunity to fight back. However, the $180 position is not simple—it is the last fortress for shorts! 🛡️ Previous attempts to charge have been repelled; can this time be successful?
📉 Brief correction? Don't panic!
Although SOL briefly reached $184, it quickly fell back, fluctuating between $177-$179. However, analysts remain optimistic: "As long as $168 doesn't break, the next step could directly reach $186-$188!" 🎯
🔮 Next stop: $220? Or even $350?
Trader Daan Crypto Trades declared: "If SOL holds above $180, the next target is $220, then $260!"
More aggressively, analyst Alex Clay directly drew an "amplifier pattern," predicting that SOL could eventually rise to $350-$400, or even break historical highs! 🚀
🎭 Meme coin frenzy boosting SOL?
Recently, meme coins based on SOL (like BONK, WIF) have surged, with a weekly increase of up to 13.3%! 🐶 This wave of enthusiasm has directly injected confidence into SOL. As long as meme coins continue to thrive, SOL can still rise!
💬 What to do now?
Short-term players: Keep an eye on $180; break through and go long!
Long-term holders: Just lay flat, $350 is not a dream!
Shorts: Beware of being liquidated; SOL's momentum is too fierce!
📢 Last shout for the market:
"$180 is key, a breakthrough signals a bull market! SOL, charge ahead! 🔥"
🎭 The truth behind the market split: Is capital playing "Three Kingdoms Kill"?
The differentiated trends of the three major coins essentially reflect the market's "risk appetite" differentiation:
DOGE: Dependent on retail sentiment, suitable for "short trading," but limited by the pressure of locked-in positions, difficult to have a big move.
ADA: Pulling up due to controversy and traffic, technical aspects are overbought, beware of "good news often turns into bad news".
SOL: Supported by ecosystem and institutions, belongs to "growth-type players," more suitable for medium to long-term holding.
Looking at it from a broader perspective, this "Ice and Fire Trio" reflects the underlying logic change in the crypto world—from "pure speculation" to a dual drive of "narrative + fundamentals." In the past, a meme coin could soar just from one word from Musk; now, investors are more focused on hard indicators like "on-chain TVL," "technical upgrades," and "ecosystem applications."
🎯 Operation Guide:
1️⃣ Dogecoin (DOGE) — Short-term bet on the '0.25 dollar defense battle'
Aggressive players: If it holds above $0.25 and breaks $0.26 on volume, they can lightly chase long with a target of $0.28 (stop loss at $0.245).
Conservative: Primarily wait and see; if it breaks below $0.24 without a rebound, it may retrace to the $0.22 range, don't catch falling knives!
Key signals: Keep an eye on Musk's Twitter and Bitcoin trends; DOGE's rise relies heavily on the "influencer effect."
2️⃣ Cardano (ADA) — 'High risk, high reward' amidst controversy
Short-term: If it holds above $0.85 and RSI falls below 70, you can bet on a rebound to $0.95 (stop loss at $0.8).
Long-term: Wait for the Hydra 3.0 upgrade to land + TVL (Total Value Locked) data; be careful not to get trapped by chasing high!
Ironic reminder: Being labeled a 'fraud coin' while still rising—this plot could not even be written by Hollywood! 😂
3️⃣ Solana (SOL) — Go long if it breaks $180!
Breakthrough strategy: If it can hold above $180 with volume, directly chase long with a target of $220 (stop loss at $175).
Retracement opportunity: If it stabilizes around $175, you can gradually build positions and take a chance on "meme coin dividends."
Analyst's quote: "SOL now feels like a top student before the college entrance exam; once the last big question (at $180) is solved, it can charge straight to Tsinghua!"
🔮 Conclusion: There are no "eternal gods" in the crypto world, only "eternal volatility."
"Today's market is like 'Crypto Crazy Thursday' — DOGE is 'v me 50 for a laugh,' ADA is 'controversial flamboyant chicken,' while SOL is 'the top student making a final push'!
⚠️ But don't forget: Crypto market sentiment is more thrilling than a roller coaster; DOGE could be taken down by shorts tomorrow, and ADA's 'fraud Rashomon' could suddenly reverse, while SOL might jump off a high platform right after breaking $180!
✍️ DYOR, manage risk well, and may you all set sail in the crypto world! 🌊
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