1. Massive token unlocks
- Several million SUI tokens are being released according to a long-term schedule.
- Recently, around 44 million SUI (≈ 120 M USD) have been unlocked, increasing supply and weighing on the price.
- An earlier deadline anticipated the dumping of 35 million tokens (≈ 17 M USD), generating additional selling pressure.
2. Selling pressure and liquidity outflows
- In March 2025, more than 600 M USD in SUI were withdrawn from various protocols in 24 hours, causing a drop in TVL from 1.99 B USD to 1.38 B USD (-30%).
- Retail traders appear to be the main sellers, while long-term holders maintain their positions, deepening the supply/demand imbalance.
3. Bearish technical analysis
- The token is moving in a downward channel and has just fallen below its 50-day moving average, a sign of moment weakness.
- The 9-day and 20-day EMAs have crossed downward, reinforcing the sellers' advantage and paving the way for further declines.
- Key supports at 4.30 USD and 4.18 USD are threatened; their breakdown could lead to a plunge to 3 USD, or even 3.414 USD in the most pessimistic scenario.
4. Market sentiment and macro context
- The overall sentiment remains bearish, amplified by geopolitical tensions and a general decline in the crypto market that weighs on L1s, including SUI.
- Trading volume has decreased (-10% in some sessions), reflecting short-term investor distrust.
- Short positions (16.7 M USD) far exceed the liquidations of long positions (8.2 M USD) on derivatives, highlighting the dominance of sellers.
5. Catalysts and rebound prospects
- Staying above the 9-day EMA and support at 4.30 USD could invalidate the bearish trend and trigger a rebound.
- Technical announcements (sharding, ZK-proofs, inter-chain bridges) or new partnerships could rekindle investor confidence and support the price in the medium term.
In summary, the decline of SUI results from scheduled unlocks, strong selling pressure, an unfavorable technical context, and overall negative sentiment. The key to anticipating stabilization or a reversal will be the price's reaction to critical support levels and the impact of future developments in the Sui ecosystem.