Abstract

In the context of increasing volatility in the global commodity market in 2025, futures market analysis has become a core skill for investors to avoid risks and seize opportunities. Whether it's crude oil,

International commodities such as gold, or domestic futures like rebar and live pigs, are all influenced by multiple factors. This article combines the latest market dynamics to analyze futures market trends.

the two core methods of analysis and practical key points. 1. Fundamental Analysis: Uncovering the Deep Logic of Price Movements. Fundamental analysis focuses on supply and demand relationships.

In the context of increasing volatility in the global commodity market in 2025, futures market analysis has become a core skill for investors to avoid risks and seize opportunities.

Whether it's international commodities like crude oil and gold, or domestic futures like rebar and live pigs, price fluctuations are influenced by multiple intertwined factors. This article combines

Latest market dynamics, analyzing the two core methods of futures market analysis and key practical points.

1. Fundamental Analysis: Uncovering the Deep Logic of Price Movements

Fundamental analysis focuses on supply and demand relationships, macroeconomics, and policy variables. Taking agricultural futures as an example, the abnormal climate in 2025 led to a rise in expectations of reduced soybean production in Brazil, directly pushing up CBOT soybean futures prices. Industrial product futures are significantly influenced by the macroeconomic cycle: if GDP growth exceeds expectations,

Demand for metals futures like copper and aluminum will be supported. Moreover, policy factors cannot be ignored—recently, a certain country announced an increase in tariffs on imported crude oil, leading to

WTI crude oil futures surged 5% in a single day.

Core Points:

Supply and Demand Data: Focus on inventory changes, production expectations, and consumption trends. For example, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report is released weekly and is a key driver of short-term price fluctuations.

Macroeconomics: GDP, CPI, interest rates, and other indicators reflect the health of the economy. If the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, gold futures may come under pressure due to a decrease in safe-haven demand.

Policies and Geopolitics: Trade wars, tariff adjustments, and geopolitical conflicts may trigger drastic price fluctuations.

2. Technical Analysis: Capturing Market Sentiment and Short-Term Trends

Technical analysis constructs chart models to predict future trends based on historical price, volume, and open interest data. Taking rebar futures as an example, if the price breaks through the upper Bollinger Band and the RSI indicator enters the overbought zone (>70), it may signal a risk of correction. The crossover signals of moving averages (such as the 5-day and 20-day moving averages) are often used to determine trend reversals.

Core Tools:

Candlestick Patterns: Head and shoulders, double bottoms, and other patterns reveal the comparison of bullish and bearish forces.

Technical Indicators: MACD golden cross/death cross, KDJ overbought/oversold signals assist decision-making.

Volume Verification: Price increases accompanied by increased volume indicate higher trend reliability.

3. Multi-dimensional Integration: Enhancing Analysis Accuracy

A single method has its limitations and needs to be combined with both fundamentals and technicals. For example, if the fundamentals indicate an oversupply of crude oil, but the technicals show a W-bottom pattern.

And if open interest increases, it may imply that the market has digested the bearish news, increasing the probability of a reversal. Additionally, one should be wary of 'black swan' events such as sudden port strikes in certain countries.

It may instantly break the predictive framework of technical analysis.

Conclusion

Futures market analysis is a combination of science and art. Investors need to establish a systematic framework: fundamentals anchor medium to long-term direction, while technicals capture short-term fluctuations, while strictly controlling risks (such as setting a 3%-5% stop-loss line). In 2025, with the popularization of artificial intelligence and quantitative trading, market efficiency will improve, but human judgment of complex systems remains irreplaceable. Only through continuous learning and maintaining rationality can one navigate steadily through the turbulent waters of the futures market.