Abstract

Against the backdrop of intensified fluctuations in the global commodities market in 2025, futures market analysis has become a core skill for investors to avoid risks and seize opportunities. Whether it is crude oil,

International varieties like gold, or domestic futures like rebar and live pigs, experience price fluctuations influenced by multiple intertwined factors. This article combines the latest market dynamics to analyze futures market conditions.

The two core methods and practical points of analysis. 1. Fundamental Analysis: Uncovering the deep logic of price movements. Fundamental analysis focuses on supply and demand relationships.

Against the backdrop of intensified fluctuations in the global commodities market in 2025, futures market analysis has become a core skill for investors to avoid risks and seize opportunities.

Whether it is international varieties such as crude oil or gold, or domestic futures like rebar and live pigs, price fluctuations are influenced by multiple intertwined factors. This article combines

The latest market dynamics, analyzing the two core methods and practical points of futures market analysis.

1. Fundamental Analysis: Uncovering the deep logic of price movements

Fundamental analysis focuses on supply and demand, macroeconomic and policy variables. Taking agricultural futures as an example, the abnormal global climate in 2025 has led to heightened expectations of reduced soybean output in Brazil, directly pushing up CBOT soybean futures prices. Industrial futures, on the other hand, are significantly affected by the macroeconomic cycle: if GDP growth exceeds expectations,

Demand for metal futures such as copper and aluminum will be supported. Additionally, policy factors cannot be ignored—recently, a certain country announced tariffs on imported crude oil, leading to

WTI crude oil futures surged 5% in a single day.

Core Points:

Supply and Demand Data: Pay attention to inventory changes, production expectations, and consumption trends. For example, the weekly release of the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report is a key driving factor for short-term oil price fluctuations.

Macroeconomics: GDP, CPI, interest rates, and other indicators reflect economic health. If the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, gold futures may come under pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand.

Policies and Geopolitics: Trade wars, tariff adjustments, and geopolitical conflicts can trigger sharp price fluctuations.

2. Technical Analysis: Capturing market sentiment and short-term trends

Technical analysis constructs chart models to predict future trends using historical price, trading volume, and open interest data. For example, if the price breaks through the upper Bollinger Band and the RSI indicator enters the overbought zone (>70), it may indicate a risk of pullback. The crossover signals of moving averages (such as the 5-day and 20-day moving averages) are often used to judge trend reversals.

Core Tools:

Candlestick Patterns: Head and Shoulders, Double Bottoms, etc., reveal the comparison of bullish and bearish forces.

Technical Indicators: MACD Golden Cross/Death Cross, KDJ Overbought/Oversold signals assist decision-making.

Volume Verification: Price increases accompanied by amplified trading volume indicate higher reliability of the trend.

3. Multi-dimensional Integration: Enhancing analytical accuracy

Single methods have limitations and need to be combined with fundamental and technical aspects. For example, if fundamentals indicate excess oil supply, but the technical side shows a W-bottom pattern

Moreover, an increase in open interest may suggest that the market has digested negative news, increasing the probability of a reversal. Additionally, one must be wary of 'black swan' events, such as a sudden port strike in a certain country

which could instantly break the predictive framework of technical analysis.

Conclusion

Futures market analysis is a combination of science and art. Investors need to establish a systematic framework: fundamentals anchor medium- to long-term direction, technicals capture short-term fluctuations, while strictly controlling risks (e.g., setting a 3%-5% stop-loss line). In 2025, as artificial intelligence and quantitative trading become widespread, market efficiency will improve, but human judgment of complex systems remains irreplaceable. Only through continuous learning and maintaining rationality can one navigate the turbulent waters of the futures market steadily.