The events in the crypto space these days are more thrilling than K-line fluctuations—central bank's naming, a large number of streamers being banned, a storm of U.S. debt repayments, TRB skyrocketing to be the biggest gainer... A series of events hit, causing many to panic: Is trading cryptocurrencies still legal? Will Bitcoin crash? How are smart money escaping peaks and buying bottoms? Today, I will break it down clearly for everyone, along with the latest operational strategies.
1. U.S. Debt Storm: Will the $6 trillion 'bomb' explode this week?
These days, the entire capital market is focused on the U.S. 'repayment day'—it is rumored that $6 trillion in U.S. debt is due this week. Although the actual amount confirmed later isn't as exaggerated, the new bonds planned for issuance this week for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year terms, plus the total of $9.2 trillion that needs to be repaid within the year, is enough to make the market shake.
The U.S. strategy remains the same: borrow new debt to repay old debt. However, last week's 20-year Treasury auction hit a snag—no one bought, leading to a spike in actual interest rates, causing Bitcoin to drop directly from 110,000 to 106,000, and U.S. stocks followed suit. The essence of this matter is: the market's confidence in the U.S.'s ability to repay debt is shaking.
Impact on the crypto space: If this week's new bond issuance is lukewarm, risk aversion sentiment could explode instantly, and Bitcoin may test the 100,000 support level; conversely, if the issuance goes smoothly, there may be a short-term rebound, but in the long term, 'borrowing new to repay old' is just procrastination. The $9.2 trillion hole before the end of the year will have to be filled eventually, and as long as this bomb remains, there is unlikely to be a real bull market in the crypto space.
My judgment: This round of U.S. debt turmoil is more like a 'stress test'; the direct default probability is extremely low, but market panic will be amplified. The fluctuation of Bitcoin between 105,000 - 112,000 will intensify, and there will be room for swing trading (specific points will be discussed later).
2. Regulatory Storm: Streamers banned, is trading cryptocurrencies legal?
The most eye-catching news in the crypto space these days is the mass banning of streamer accounts, even making it to TV. Many are asking: Is trading cryptocurrencies no longer allowed?
First, the conclusion: personal cryptocurrency trading is still in a 'gray area' domestically, but tightening regulation is a clear trend. Currently, there are no laws directly prohibiting individuals from holding or trading cryptocurrencies, but institutions are strictly forbidden from engaging in related businesses (such as exchanges and intermediary platforms). The core reason for the recent bans on streamers is 'violating regulations, promoting speculation', especially inducing newcomers to leverage and making them easy targets.
Advice for ordinary investors:
Stay away from 'signal groups' and high-leverage platforms; compliance is the top priority.
Invest with spare money, do not borrow money or take loans to trade cryptocurrencies.
Keep good transaction records, choose qualified overseas platforms (pay attention to regional restrictions).
Don't panic; compliance does not equal prohibition, it is just eliminating 'wild paths', which is a good thing for the industry in the long run.
3. Market Game: Are smart money escaping or buying the dip?
The market is currently severely divided: on one side, nearly $10 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs on the NYSE in a month, institutions are buying; on the other side, the whale Spoofy is crazily selling $2 billion, reducing holdings by 75%, who actually calls the shots?
Look for two key signals:
Greed and Fear Index: Currently, it has soared to the 'extreme greed' range (85 points), historical data shows that the probability of a pullback in the next 30 days at this position exceeds 70%, but this does not mean an immediate drop, rather, the upward space is compressed.
On-chain fund flow: In the past 3 days, 120,000 Bitcoins have been transferred out of exchanges (locked), but at the same time, 80,000 have flowed into exchanges from whale wallets (selling), leading to fierce battles between bulls and bears at the 110,000 level.
My operational strategy:
Spot: Reduce Bitcoin positions to below 50%, keep core altcoins (such as TRB which has actual benefits);
Contracts: Lightly short above 110,000, lightly long below 105,000, with a 500-point stop loss, don't be greedy.
Cash is king: Keep more than 30% in cash and wait for a pullback below 100,000 to look for opportunities.
4. TRB surged 50%: Can we chase it? What other opportunities are there?
TRB skyrocketed to the top of the gainers list yesterday, spot prices rose by 50%, and now there's a 40% unrealized profit, many are asking if they should chase it.
Operational details:
For those already in: Close half of your contract positions for profit, set a stop loss at the opening price for the rest; keep half of your spot positions, set a stop loss at the 33-day moving average (currently around $8.2), hold as long as it doesn't break.
For those not in: Don't chase the highs! Wait for a pullback to around $10 (30% pullback) to try entering; this wave may be a sector rotation, not the start of a bull market.
Additionally, remember the lesson from Trump-related tokens: good news turning into bad news. A few days ago, it surged 40% before the dinner and then dropped directly 30% afterward. Such 'event-driven' tokens, never act as a bag holder.
5. Bitcoin: Where are the key points this week?
Bitcoin is currently stuck between 108,000 - 110,000, and these two points are crucial:
If it drops below 105,000: it may test the 100,000 round number, which is a strong support level at the upper edge of the previous fluctuation platform.
If it stabilizes at 112,000: there might be a chance to retest the previous high of 123,000, but the probability is less than 30% (affected by U.S. debt and regulation).
Safe play: Don't guess tops and bottoms, play the swings. Buy below 107,000 and sell above 110,000, taking profits of 3%-5% each time, this wave of fluctuating market is more reliable for making profits than betting on direction.
To be frank: the crypto space is never about who is bolder, but rather about who survives longer. The U.S. debt storm and tightening regulations are essentially screening out 'gamblers', leaving behind those who truly understand trends and maintain discipline.