The current market is entering the latter part of Q3 2025, with overall risk appetite gradually warming up; altcoins are in the early stage of breakout.
The following is an analysis summary of the recent altcoin breakout (as of mid-July):
📈 1. Technical observation: Clear signs of altcoin breakouts
1. Overall market capitalization (Altcoin Market Cap)
The TOTAL3 index on TradingView (excluding BTC/ETH market capitalization) has broken through a nearly two-month downtrend line, entering an initial structure of upward breakout after sideways consolidation.
If continued, the next target area may test the year's high pressure zone.
2. Sector rotation phenomenon appears
Layer 1 sector leads the way: e.g., $NEAR, $TON, $APT, $SEI.
AI + DePIN themed rotation rebound: e.g., $RNDR, $AKT, $TAO, $FET.
Veteran strong coins regain favor from funds: e.g., $DOGE, $PEPE, $SOL, $LINK.
3. Bitcoin's trend supports altcoin performance
Although BTC has not risen significantly, it has maintained high-level fluctuations, providing space for altcoins to perform.
Currently, BTC.D (Bitcoin market cap dominance) has fallen from its peak, benefiting the inflow of funds into other coins.
🧠 2. Fund and news synergy driving the market
1. Funds are starting to shift towards high Beta products
Investors are starting to look for opportunities with higher returns than BTC/ETH.
Smaller market cap tokens are showing breakout volume: indicating that funds are beginning to take risks.
2. ETF, RWA, AI asset themes continue to be hot
BlackRock submitted a report on tokenized assets, and AI applications expanded, triggering a rotation of some concept coins.
Some protocols (e.g., $ONDO, $POLYX, $WLD) have seen price increases driven by narratives.
🔍 3. Summary of typical strong coins
Coin Performance in the past week Technical structure Theme/Narrative
$NEAR +25% Breaks pressure zone and re-establishes above quarterly line Ecosystem expansion + Layer 1 craze
$TON +18% Breaks new high after a long period of consolidation Telegram effect + TON ecosystem
$RNDR +30% Volume breakout on daily flag chart Core concept coin in AI rendering
$PEPE +40% Volume breakout of the downtrend line Meme coin sentiment warming up
🧭 4. Subsequent observations and risk reminders
✅ Attention should be paid to:
Are there more small and medium-sized coins breaking out and stabilizing at support?
Whether sector rotation continues: AI → Meme → L1 → GameFi, etc.
Can BTC stabilize without a significant drop and maintain the rebound space for altcoins?
⚠️ Risks include:
If BTC falls below critical support (e.g., $107,000), funds may flow back into conservative assets.
False breakout phenomena increase: Some altcoins are prone to rapid rises followed by sharp declines.
US regulations and macro events interference (e.g., inflation data, ETF approval pace)
