🐂 When Will the Bull Market End? Forecasting the Peak of Crypto & Altseason 2025
After a long crypto winter, the 2024–2025 cycle has brought roaring gains. $BTC has surged past $120,000, and altcoins are exploding in value. But the question on every investor’s mind is:
When it will end?
Let’s break down the key data points:
⏳ 1. Historical Cycles: Timing the Top
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets run about 12–18 months after each halving. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
🔮 Projection:
If the pattern holds, the market could peak between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, most likely around November–December 2025.
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🔁 2. Bitcoin Dominance
Altseason — when altcoins outperform Bitcoin — tends to arrive in the later phase of the bull cycle, right before the top. In past cycles:
• Altcoins lag BTC early in the cycle
• Then catch up in mid-cycle
📈 Current signal:
Bitcoin dominance is falling in July 2025, signaling we are in the middle or second half of altseason.
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💰 3. On-Chain Metrics: Are We Overheating?
• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) – currently in “euphoria” zone
• Exchange inflows – increasing BTC moving to exchanges (potential selling)
• Stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) – dropping, meaning dry powder is being deployed
🧠 Interpretation:
Signals show we are in the late stage of the cycle, but not yet at full mania. Retail still hasn’t fully arrived — another bullish tailwind.
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🌐 4. Macroeconomic Risk:
• The Fed is expected to cut rates by end of 2025, supporting risk assets.
• U.S. elections in November 2025 could drive market volatility.
• The new GENIUS Act for stablecoins brings clarity but also introduces potential compliance burdens.
🚨 Macro risk window:
Q1–Q2 2026 — possible start of a global slowdown or regulatory tightening could signal the start of the next bear market.
📆 Final Forecast
Altseason peak - “Expected Timing” Sep–Nov 2025
Start of bear market - “Expected Timing” Q1 2026
