Technical Aspect: $120,000 is the 'life and death line' for bulls and bears.
BTC's current price is stuck at $120,412. The 4-hour K-line shows: the lower level of $118,000 is a dense accumulation area for institutions, while the upper level of $122,000 is the last line of defense for bears. Trading volume is sluggish, retail investors are watching, but on-chain data shows that whale addresses have increased their holdings by 12,000 BTC in the past 24 hours, indicating a clear intention from institutions to 'buy low'.
News Aspect: Grayscale Unlock + Fed Rate Cut, a double spectacle.
Act I: Grayscale Unlocks $550 Million in BTC
Today, Grayscale unlocked 16,200 BTC, raising market concerns about selling pressure. However, historical data contradicts this: after unlocking 12,300 BTC in June, BTC only fell 5.8% before rebounding. Arbitrageurs have hedged through GBTC discounts, and the real selling pressure has been absorbed by institutions. This time may replicate the script of 'retail investors cutting losses, institutions bottom-fishing'.
Act II: The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations 'Flip Flop'
Last night, Fed's Williams hinted at a potential 'interest rate cut in the coming months', but the probability of a rate cut in September plummeted from 80% to 54.3%. The dollar index surged, causing BTC to drop below 120,000. In the long run, the rate cut is just delayed, not absent. Standard Chartered predicts BTC will reach $200,000 by the end of the year, and the current pullback might be a 'pickup'.
Personal Opinion: ETH is draining, BTC is accumulating energy.
Today, ETH broke through $3,600, altcoins are celebrating, but BTC is consolidating. This resembles the mid-2021 bull market — ETH first rose to $4,000, and then BTC surged from $50,000 to $64,000. History may repeat itself: ETH attracts capital, and BTC might welcome a major uptrend after a washout.
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Conclusion
BTC stuck at $120,000; is it a 'continuation pattern' or a 'top signal'?
Bullish: Grayscale unlock is a paper tiger, supported by institutions, breaking through $122,000 is just a matter of time! Bearish: If the Fed does not cut rates, BTC will struggle to rise; it’s better to go for ETH for quick profits!
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