Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is facing the most perilous political siege of his career. The Trump administration has officially launched the selection process for the next chairman, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin personally stating that 'the candidate list has been drawn up', directly slapping Powell in the face. Even more severe, the betting rate on Powell being fired surged from 16% to 26% within 4 hours, a volatility comparable to a meme coin explosion, clearly indicating insider funds are at play.
1. The 'Three Knives' to Strangle Powell
Interest Rate Discrepancy Intensifies: Trump continuously rages on social media that 'interest rates should be cut to 1%', even showcasing a global central bank interest rate comparison chart to humiliate Powell, almost resorting to street cursing. The core contradiction lies in the interest pressure of $36 trillion in national debt—every 1% cut in interest rates saves $360 billion in interest, a figure higher than Tesla's market value.
Politicalization of the Renovation Scandal: The White House is adamant about the Federal Reserve headquarters' $2.5 billion renovation budget, fiercely criticizing it as 'the Versailles of the Federal Reserve'. Although Powell urgently refuted claims that the VIP restaurant and marble renovations are purely fictional, the oversight department has already been infiltrated by Trump loyalists, clearly aiming to fabricate charges.
The Legal Dark Door is Forced Open: White House economic advisor Hassett publicly claims that 'the President has the authority to fire Powell', attempting to package policy differences as 'malfeasance'. This action directly violates the 111-year boundary against political interference in the Federal Reserve.
2. Financial Market Nuclear Explosion Warning
Once Powell is forcibly removed, global assets will face an epic shock:
Double Blow to Dollar and U.S. Treasuries: Deutsche Bank models indicate that the dollar index may plummet by 3%-4% within 24 hours, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could violently spike by 30-40 basis points, reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis.
Liquidity Severance: Short-term rates may drop due to interest rate cut expectations, but long-term rates will surge due to inflation fears. The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread may break 200 basis points, reaching the highest level since the 1980s—this distorted structure will drain liquidity from risk assets.
Cracks in Dollar Hegemony: Dutch ING warns that the **Euro against the Dollar may surge by 4% in a single week, breaking 1.25, while the Yen could break above 135. Don't forget the lesson from 2021 when the Turkish central bank governor was fired, leading to a 60% depreciation of the Lira in two years.
3. The Power Game Behind the Successor List
What's truly terrifying is not changing personnel, but changing who is in charge:
Number One Puppet Hassett: Former White House economic advisor, suddenly turned against the Federal Reserve in June, harshly criticizing it for 'partisan decision-making', and sycophantically declaring 'it is time to cut interest rates immediately.'
Big Player Waller: Former Federal Reserve governor and son-in-law of the Estée Lauder family, publicly opposing Trump's tariff policy, yet ambushing Powell at the G30 summit with accusations of 'failure to control inflation', a typical double-sided bet.
Deregulatory Proponent Bowman: Recently nominated as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision, she is vigorously pushing for the relaxation of bank capital requirements. If she takes office, traditional financial institutions may be allowed to enter the cryptocurrency market en masse.
4. Survival Guide for the Crypto Circle:
Don't be deceived by political smoke screens; focus on these three lifelines:
1. Dual Hedge of Gold and Bitcoin: Historical data shows that for every 1% drop in the dollar index, BTC averages an 8.3% rise within two weeks. However, short-term panic may trigger a chain of liquidations, so it's advisable to build spot positions in batches.
2. Bet on 'Dovish Appointment' Trades: If Trump nominates Hassett and other interest rate cut advocates in September, immediately increase positions in highly leveraged coins (like ETH and SOL). However, a 10% stop-loss line should be set to guard against black swan events.
3. Shorting U.S. Treasury Proxy Assets: Rising U.S. Treasury yields will slaughter interest-bearing tokens, focusing on avoiding staking protocol tokens like Lido and Aave, and shifting to non-interest-bearing assets like BTC and XMR.
