1. Interpretation of the essence of market conditions
1. The signal meaning of ETH/BTC=0.02971
• Breakthrough of key resistance: 0.028-0.031 is the historical long-short watershed. Breaking through 0.02971 indicates:
– Funds are moving from BTC (safe haven asset) to ETH (risk asset)
– Market risk appetite increases, the probability of the launch of “Altcoin Season” is > 70%
Benchmark history: After ETH/BTC broke through 0.06 in January 2024, the overall altcoin rose by 140%
2. The linkage between Bitcoin and mainstream currencies
✅ Conclusion:
• Strong linkage: ETH and L2 ecosystem (such as $ERA) are positively correlated with BTC, but the growth elasticity is greater
• Weak linkage: AI/Depin and other sectors are driven by external factors and can hedge systemic risks
2. Core market driving factors
1. ETH spot ETF catalyst:
– BlackRock revised its S-1 filing (expected to be listed in July), and institutions increased their ETH positions
– Data shows that ETH futures open interest increased by 34% week-on-week, with call options accounting for 68%
2. L2 track explosion:
- Caldera Metalayer mainnet countdown (linking 60+ Rollup chains), TVL increased by 15% per week
– **
ERA valuation support ∗∗: FDV6.2 billion ≈ 17 times of competitor AltLayer, fundamentals need to be fulfilled
3. Macro liquidity:
- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 80%, and the leverage ratio of the crypto market has returned to the level at the beginning of the year
3. Market trend grasp strategy
(2) Hedging risks (preventing black swans)
• Tool 1: Long ETH/BTC exchange rate futures (leverage 3x) to hedge Altcoin positions
• Tool 2: Buy BTC put option (strike price $58k), covering 10% risk of total position
• Tool 3: Allocate 5% of the position in the AI sector (RNDR/TAO) to reduce Beta volatility
(3) On-chain early warning indicators
• Long position termination signal:
ETH whales transferred > 500,000 ETH to exchanges (Santiment data)
The 7-day growth rate of stablecoin market value is less than 0.5% (USDT+USDC)
• Short reversal signals:
BTC miners' holding index increased by more than 5% (indicating accumulation)
1.3 corresponds to FDV6.2 billion, which exceeds the upper limit of reasonable valuation (0.8≈3.8 billion)
• Competitor Polygon’s market value is only 6.5 billion (its ecosystem maturity crushes ERA)
5. Ultimate Position Allocation Suggestions
Key tips:
0297 broke through the pass, the mountain village monsoon rose duckweed;
Ethereum leads the L2 dance, keep enough cash to prevent pullbacks.
If ETH/BTC stabilizes at 0.03,
ERA is expected to hit 1.5; if it falls below 0.028, you need to decisively switch to BTC for risk hedging. Do not chase high $ERA at present, and focus on the progress of Caldera mainnet launch and VC chain trends (Arkham monitoring link). $ETH