Bitcoin price soared to $120,000, creating a mix of excitement and anxiety in the market.

This surge does indeed quicken the heart, but calm analysis is crucial❗️

The following is a professional judgment framework combining the current market environment to help rationally view subsequent trends:

🔍 Core Analysis Dimensions

1. Verification of Causes for Surge

Emergency investigation, immediately verify the authenticity of the news source (exchange data / authoritative media), rule out data anomalies or false signals. If true, lock in the driving factors:

- ✅ Sudden positive news, such as BlackRock's spot ETF record daily fundraising, a central bank announcing BTC purchases, large tech companies allocating BTC on balance sheets, etc.

Liquidity squeeze, if perpetual contract funding rate >0.1%/day (refer to Bybit data), indicates unsustainable rise driven by short liquidations.

Signs of market manipulation, check on-chain whale addresses (e.g., Glassnode alerts), be wary of short-term pump and dump risks.

2. Extreme Technical Signals

Monthly RSI, if >90 (historically only reached at the end of 2020), short-term overbought is serious, be wary of profit-taking sell-offs.

Key Support/Resistance

Support level: $100,000 (psychological barrier) / $92,000 (previous high turned support)

Resistance level: $130,000 (Fibonacci extension level)

Volume verification, daily trading volume must exceed $100B (refer to Binance data), otherwise considered a volume-price divergence.

3. On-Chain Data Perspective

Holder behavior, check Glassnode's aSOPR indicator, if >1.5 indicates concentrated selling pressure from short-term holders (<155 days).

Exchange dynamics, if 24h net inflow >200,000 BTC (CryptoQuant data), indicates a surge in selling willingness.

Miner holdings, miner address balance decreases by over 5000 BTC, often indicating a top signal.

4. Macro Environment Overlapping Effects

Federal Reserve policy, if June CPI >3.5% and dot plot indicates rate hikes, cryptocurrencies will be under pressure.

If the TGA account balance falls below $400 billion, it will benefit risk assets.

Geopolitics, escalation of Middle East conflicts may drive BTC safe-haven buying (refer to synchronized gold movements).

📉 Subsequent Scenario Simulation (Probability Assessment)

Scenario, Trigger Conditions, Probability

Inertia surge ($130K+) ETF weekly net inflow > $5B + Dollar Index DXY <104 25% Take partial profits, retain 20% position

High-level fluctuation ($105K-$125K) miner HODL volatility <0.5 + Volatility index VIX <30 | 45% Options hedge (buy Put protection)

Deep correction ($85K-$100K) USDT market cap shrinks >3% + Coinbase premium turns negative | 30% Stop loss triggered + switch to stablecoin mining

🛡️ Practical Response Strategy

1. Position Management

If holding cost <$60K, it is recommended to reduce holdings by at least 50% to lock in profits.

New entrants should adopt a 'pyramid averaging' strategy, adding 10% for every $10K drop (maximum 30% position).

2. Hedging Tools

Buy Bitcoin Put options with a strike price of $95K and a term of 1 month (cost about 5-8% of principal).

Go long on volatility index products (such as Bitfinex's BVOL).

3. Alternative Allocation

Transfer some profits to anti-drawdown assets:

Ethereum staking (annual yield 3-5%)

Physical Gold ETF (GLD)

Short-term US Treasuries (yield 4.8%)

4. Key Monitoring Checklist

🚨 Check Grayscale GBTC flow daily at 9:00 AM (UTC) (continuous outflow requires caution)

🔔 Set TradingView alert: $102,000 (trigger risk control if breached)

📊 Focus on CFTC position report every Friday (institutional long-short ratio >1.2 increases risk)

Rational reminder, in extreme market conditions where Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeds 50% (December 2020 / January 2023), the average pullback over the next 30 days reached 28%. Do not use leverage to chase prices now; historical data shows that the short-term probability of liquidating long contracts after a surge is as high as 76% (Bybit 2023 report).

True investment wisdom lies in having the courage to be the calm risk assessor when the market falls into collective frenzy.

It is recommended to lock in 20% of this profit as 'risk-free assets', which not only hedges against market volatility but also reserves ammunition for the next opportunity.

Keep an eye on changes in on-chain data; I will update you with warning signals at key points.