First, let's look at the holding ratio of more than 1 year; this data has now reached the lowest position of this bull market, exceeding the lowest point of 61.92% in February, currently at 61.82%. This data indicates that as prices rise, our "smart money" long-term holders are continuously selling their positions, but the current selling speed is relatively slow, leaving some space.
The second is Bitcoin's market share, which has dropped from the highest 66% recently to 62%. As Bitcoin retreats, the market share continues to decrease, indicating that the bull market is slowly entering the mid-to-late stage.
Next is the RHODL ratio, which has recently soared from over 2000 to 5300. This data can reflect that the current speed of Bitcoin's rise is very rapid.
The altcoin season index has quietly reached the position of 41, approaching neutrality, and the top of the bull market often coincides with the peak of the altcoin season index, leading to a major crash.
Finally, the funding rate data is currently very normal. Despite such a large increase, the bulls have not led too much, and many bears remain skeptical, insisting on shorting at highs or directly opposing the short positions. Therefore, the data still looks quite healthy.
Let's stop here for today, tomorrow we will land in the 'Food Desert' and stay in the food desert for a weekend.
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July 17, 2025 Indicator Analysis
Holding ratio for more than 1 year: 61.82% (less than 55% is a high-risk area)
Ahr999X index: 2.44 (greater than 9 is a regular investment area, less than 0.4 is a top area)
Bitcoin market cap ratio: 62.46% (close to 40% is the top area)
Fear and greed index: 74 (close to 100 is high risk, below 10 enters the bottom buying range)
Bitcoin rainbow index: HODL! (Orange-red is high risk, deep blue is the bottom buying area)
PI distance to crossover: parallel (far apart, parallel, close to crossover, crossover (where crossover is the bull market top))
RHODL ratio: 5300 (greater than 10k is the top area, less than 300 enters the bottom buying range)
Jiang Zhuoer 60-day increase: 14.9% (greater than 80% is short-term bubble high risk)
RSI index: 74.07 (less than 45 enters the bottom buying range, greater than 85 is the top area)
Altcoin season index: 41 (less than 25 enters low value range, greater than 75 is a bubble area)
MVRV-Z index: 2.79 (less than 0 enters the bottom buying range, greater than 4 is in the top area)
Bitcoin ETF inflow and outflow (unit: million): 799.4
Second coin ETF inflow and outflow (unit: million): 726.6
Regular investment and regular selling index: holding range (bottom buying range / regular investment range / holding range / regular selling range / top range)
Daily Bitcoin K-line trend: upward trend (upward trend / downward trend)
Countdown to bull market top escaping: 61 days remaining
Please indicate the source when forwarding: Bull Market Top Escaping Guide
All the above text is my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
