Current dynamics
Since the beginning of the week, the White House administration has been actively sending notifications to partners regarding an increase in tariffs starting August 1, ranging from 25%-50%. The governments of Japan, South Korea, and Brazil, which have high trade transactions with the United States, announced their receipt of the tariffs, but the focus of market participants remains on adjusting the rate to 30% on imports from the European Union and Mexico. According to 2022 data, these countries exported goods worth $533 billion and $455 billion respectively, which together account for about one-third of total U.S. imports. Investors fear that tightening conditions will increase pressure on the economy and push it into a recession in the near future, especially since the latest minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicate that most officials are not ready to adjust borrowing costs before the end of this year.
Experts point out that one additional factor behind the rise in the price of "digital gold" is the concern of market participants regarding the outlook for U.S. government debt. After the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, launched by the White House President, which represents a comprehensive economic program embodying the politician's electoral promises, its ceiling increased by $5 trillion, making it the largest one-time correction in U.S. history. Under these circumstances, BTC and cryptocurrencies in general are considered safe assets, which boosts their prices. However, this huge volume of purchases is currently attributed to major players, as the price of the first cryptocurrency has now become too high for retail investors. This is also confirmed by the change in the Bitcoin-ETF balance, which reached $2.7175 billion during the week.
Support and resistance levels
The instrument has exited the sideways range between 111000.00-100000.00, and has settled above the 121875.00 mark (Murray level [7/8]), allowing exchange rates to test targets of 125000.00 (Murray level [8/8]) and 128125.00 (Murray level [+1/8]).
Technical indicators suggest the current trend will continue: the Bollinger Bands are trending upward, the MACD indicator is increasing in the positive zone, while the stochastic indicator is moving horizontally in overbought territory. Prices exceeding the upper line of the Bollinger Bands do not rule out a correction to the 112500.00 area (Murray level [4/8]), but it is unlikely to lead to a change in trend.
Resistance levels: 125000.00, 128125.00.
Support levels: 115625.00, 112500.00.
