While most people are still anxiously watching the red and green alternation of candlestick charts, I have already spent ten springs and autumns in this market. My eight-year full-time cryptocurrency trading career not only stabilized my assets at the tens of millions level, but more importantly, allowed me to find a balance between trading and life.
Taking kids to school every day, preparing simple meals, capturing opportunities during market fluctuations, jogging in the park in the afternoon, and picking up kids for dinner in the evening. This kind of freedom from the shackles of the workplace may be the ultimate state that every trader longs for.
1. The underlying logic of stable profits: Liquidity is king.
Many people treat trading as a shortcut to wealth, yet ignore the most fundamental survival rules of the market. I always adhere to the three principles of 'having coins on the market, money in the account, and cash in the pocket'; this is not conservatism, but a protective talisman against black swan events in the crypto market. Over ten years, I've seen too many cases of instant wealth from all-in bets followed by immediate zeroing out, and I've witnessed the entire process of leveraged traders going from exuberance to heavy debt.
My daily operating model may not be thrilling; I track a dozen cryptocurrencies simultaneously, accumulating profits through small-scale swings in an 'ant-moving-house' manner. I concentrate on processing orders during the active trading period from 9:30 to 10:50 AM, and when the market is quiet in the afternoon, I switch to mobile trading, freeing up time for jogging or fishing.
Behind this rhythm is a profound understanding of the market's volatility laws: the 24-hour trading nature of the cryptocurrency market ensures that most of the time is spent in ineffective fluctuations. Learning to stay calm amidst the noise can actually help seize real opportunities.
2. Six survival rules to navigate bull and bear markets.
In this market with a win rate of less than 20%, I have summarized six principles that must be ingrained in one's bones; they may seem simple but can filter out 90% of failures:
Setting stop losses and take profits is a lifeline: the essence of trading is a probability game, and being right or wrong is not important; what matters is how much you earn when right and how much you lose when wrong. Setting dynamic take profit points and exiting immediately when key levels are breached is more important than any technical analysis.
Give up the obsession with precise positioning: those who try to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest ultimately become sacrifices to the market. Being able to identify 70% of bottom and top areas is enough to outlast the vast majority.
Volume is the thermometer of market activity: when the volume continues to shrink during an uptrend, it's like a person having a fever with a drop in temperature, inevitably hiding danger. It's better to miss an upward move than to catch the last wave.
The speed of information processing determines the difference in returns: when good news arises, lock in related sectors at the first moment; before bad news spreads, avoid risk areas in advance, as hesitating for a second can make a world of difference.
Learn to coexist peacefully with the market: single-sided markets account for less than 30% of the year; the rest of the time is volatile. Force yourself to exit when it's time to rest; a healthy body and mindset are more valuable than staring at the screen.
Opportunities are hidden in crises: the panic after a 50% drop is often safer than the frenzy after a 100% rise. When others are busy cutting losses, it's the window to gradually position in quality assets.
3. Practical analysis of MACD divergence strategies.
Technical indicators are not omnipotent, but not understanding technical indicators is absolutely unacceptable. After years of validation, the improved MACD strategy is an essential tool for capturing trend reversals, with the core focusing on identifying 'continuous divergence' signals:
Adjust the MACD parameters to 13 and 34 (instead of the default 12 and 26), which better fits the volatility cycle of the crypto market. When prices reach new highs while MACD peaks gradually decrease (top divergence), it indicates that upward momentum is waning; when prices reach new lows while MACD troughs gradually rise (bottom divergence), it suggests that downward momentum is exhausting.
Underlying logic: The MACD essentially measures the difference between short-term and long-term moving averages. During top divergence, the short-term increase lags behind the long-term increase, resulting in 'stagnation'; during bottom divergence, the short-term decrease is smaller than the long-term decrease, resulting in 'stagnation'. This kind of momentum divergence is often a precursor to trend reversals.
Set stop losses in conjunction with the ATR indicator (usually taking 1.5-2 times the ATR value) to effectively control the risk of single trades. It's worth noting that the effectiveness of bottom divergence signals is generally higher than that of top divergence, closely related to the crypto market's characteristic of 'sharp drops and slow rises'.
4. Build your own trading system.
True trading experts have a closed-loop system that can withstand scrutiny:
Signal recognition: Automatically mark points of continuous MACD divergence to avoid subjective judgment bias.
Trend filtering: Combine moving average arrangements (e.g. MA10 and EMA10 crossover) to determine the overall direction and only engage in trend-following trades.
Timing selection: Use the RSI indicator to filter overbought and oversold zones, avoiding entry during extreme emotions.
Position management: No single cryptocurrency position should exceed 10% of total funds, and no single stop loss should exceed 2% of the principal.
Review and optimization: Record operational details daily, summarize strategy effectiveness weekly, and iterate parameters monthly.
This system may not make you rich overnight, but it can ensure survival in most market conditions. Remember, in the crypto market, staying alive means you have the chance to wait for your own opportunities.
Conclusion: Trading is a form of practice.
After ten years of honing my skills, from three liquidations to stable profits, my biggest realization is: trading cryptocurrencies ultimately revolves around human nature. If you can control greed, you can protect profits; if you can overcome fear, you can seize opportunities.
If you also want to achieve financial freedom in this market, why not start today: invest spare money, learn basic logic, build a trading system, and adhere to risk control discipline. Follow me for more verified swing trading techniques and asset analysis, let's navigate the crypto wave steadily together.#币安HODLer空投ERA #以太坊连续两日领涨
